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Caen vs Valenciennes Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, August 07, 2026)

Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 1

Date: 7 August 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Ligue 1+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Caen		Valenciennes

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.20	2.85
	2.12	3.15	3.00
	2.36	3.45	3.09
	2.25	3.3	2.9	Watch
	2.30	3.25	3.05
	2.25	3.13	2.99	Watch
	2.24	3.20	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.07)	3.24 ↓ (3.34)	2.98 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caen
40.9%

Draw
28.3%

Valenciennes
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

27.4%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Valenciennes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	80%	20%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Valenciennes will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Clementia Y. (G) 3. Bolumbu D. 9. El Khoumisti F. 20. Portut K. 4. Mbaka S. 22. Hafid M. 12. Appiah D. 24. Milliner L. 27. El Idrissi M. A. 25. Bagbema Z. 19. Lamouliatte H.	1. Louchet J. (G) 2. Abu D. 5. Passi B. 8. Rouai M. 7. Abi C. 6. Zogba M. 11. Ekra R. 13. Rocchia C. 27. Amir Z. 22. Goprou D. 19. Marechal T.
Substitutes
14. Bomo J. 29. Diakite S. 11. Gnanduillet A. 34. Kanoute D. 8. Noireau-Dauriat S. 35. Pembele O. 40. Tutu R. (G)	26. Boiteau L. 18. Courtet G. 40. Lacombe J. (G) 24. Lebouath S. 33. Linyon D. 21. Marcel V. 28. Wahib A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, El Khoumisti F. ⚽, Bagbema Z. (A),
39', 2 - 0, El Khoumisti F. ⚽, Milliner L. (A),
44', Goprou D. 🟨,
45+5', Amir Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', El Idrissi M. A. 🟨,
60', 3 - 0, El Khoumisti F. ⚽,
67', Ekra R. ↓, Boiteau L. ↑,
67', Marechal T. ↓, Marcel V. ↑,
73', El Idrissi M. A. ↓, Gnanduillet A. ↑,
73', Milliner L. ↓, Bomo J. ↑,
74', Passi B. ↓, Wahib A. ↑,
81', Abu D. ↓, Lebouath S. ↑,
81', El Khoumisti F. ↓, Noireau-Dauriat S. ↑,
81', Abi C. ↓, Courtet G. ↑,
84', 4 - 0, Hafid M. (Penalty Awarded),
85', Lamouliatte H. ↓, Pembele O. ↑,
85', Hafid M. ↓, Diakite S. ↑,
87', Rocchia C. 🟨,
87', Pembele O. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caen won 2.

Caen is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Caen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Caen has had a series of home games.

Caen might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Caen won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Caen won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).

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Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caen	2	1	0	1	7:4	3	3
9	Valenciennes	2	1	0	1	2:4	-2	3

Last Results with these Odds

Caen - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.2%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Valenciennes - the odds 3.22 are the expected chance of winning is 28.41%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Caen - Dieppe	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	Caen - Al-Wakrah	4:1 ✺
18.07.26	Caen - Laval	4:2 ✺
15.07.26	Caen - Paris 13 Atletico	3:4 ✺
09.07.26	Rennes - Caen	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.3 TWWLW
- Valenciennes FC
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Valenciennes - Boulogne	1:1 ✺
22.07.26	Eastleigh - Valenciennes	0:3 ✺
04.07.26	Dunkerque - Valenciennes	0:2 ✺
French Ligue 3
15.05.26	Valenciennes - Châteauroux	2:2 ✺
09.05.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Valenciennes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
28.02.26	Valenciennes - Caen	2:1
19.09.25	Caen - Valenciennes	0:0
French Ligue 2
17.05.24	Caen - Valenciennes	3:0
28.10.23	Valenciennes - Caen	2:2
18.03.23	Caen - Valenciennes	2:1
05.11.22	Valenciennes - Caen	1:1
15.03.22	Valenciennes - Caen	1:1

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