Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 3

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: The Oval (Caernarfon)

Referee: Owen T. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, S4C
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Caernarfon Town		Colwyn Bay

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.30	3.00
	2.12	3.3	3.05
	2.04	3.66	3.33
	2.07	3.66	3.26	Watch
	2.1	3.55	3.1
	1.98	3.56	3.54
	2.14	3.35	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (2.01)	3.48 ↓ (3.57)	3.18 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caernarfon Town
44.5%

Draw
26.5%

Colwyn Bay
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

25.5%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

25.9%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caernarfon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

The chances for Colwyn Bay have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colwyn Bay than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roberts C. (G) 6. Canavan J. 11. Cieslewicz A. 9. Clarke Z. 14. Edwards N. 29. Evans O. 8. Gosset D. 3. Jones M. 16. Nash B. 4. Piggott J. 27. Sears R.	1. Halstead M. (G) 21. Astles R. 8. Bratley C. 9. Davies A. 11. Davies J. 19. Hill M. 4. Peate N. 22. Poole D. 10. Robles L. 5. Sirrell L. 16. Williams J.
Substitutes
19. Bradley S. 23. Marriott Ch. 5. Mooney P. 10. Thomas D. 13. Williams J. (G) 39. Wyn H. 25. Zanzala O.	3. Hart S. 13. Osment S. (G) 2. Roberts D. 17. Roberts E. 20. Williams A.
Coaches
Davies R.	Wilde M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Gosset D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', Gosset D. 🟨,
64', 2 - 0, Clarke Z. ⚽,
69', Evans O. ↓, Bradley S. ↑,
73', 3 - 0, Cieslewicz A. ⚽,
76', Williams J. ↓, Williams A. ↑,
76', Hill M. ↓, Roberts E. ↑,
79', Clarke Z. ↓, Zanzala O. ↑,
86', Canavan J. ↓, Wyn H. ↑,
86', Cieslewicz A. ↓, Thomas D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caernarfon won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Caernarfon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Caernarfon won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:5. (average 2.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Caernarfon won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:4. (average 2.6:0.8).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Caernarfon: 2.4% Colwyn Bay: 1.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Caernarfon	12	7	2	3	35:14	21	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	21:15	6	22

Last Results with these Odds

Caernarfon Town - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 45.45%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caernarfon Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.08.26	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:2 ✺
02.08.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Caernarfon Town	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Levadia Tallinn - Caernarfon Town	5:0 ✺
09.07.26	Caernarfon Town - Levadia Tallinn	0:5 ✺
Club Friendly
20.06.26	Glentoran - Caernarfon Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWLLW
- Colwyn Bay
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.08.26	Ammanford - Colwyn Bay	2:2 ✺
31.07.26	Colwyn Bay - Trefelin	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.07.26	Marine - Colwyn Bay	2:0 ✺
11.07.26	Colwyn Bay - Altrincham	2:2 ✺
06.07.26	Colwyn Bay - Rhyl	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
03.04.26	Colwyn Bay - Caernarfon Town	0:2
27.02.26	Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay	3:0
Welsh FA Cup
31.01.26	Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay	4:1
Welsh Cymru Premier
27.12.25	Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay	1:2
04.10.25	Colwyn Bay - Caernarfon Town	1:0
Welsh League Cup
01.08.25	Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay	3:0
Welsh Cymru Premier
31.12.23	Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay	2:1

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