Match Info

Serie A - Round 1

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Unipol Domus (Cagliari)

Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cagliari		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.55
	3.2	3.25	2.25
	3.05	3.05	2.52	Watch
	3.22	3.15	2.54
	3.10	3.03	2.43	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.25
	3.08	3.08	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↓ (3.13)	3.11 ↓ (3.38)	2.45 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cagliari
30.6%

Draw
30.6%

Fiorentina
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

28.4%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

27.6%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cagliari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	17.9%	74.4%

Cagliari - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Cagliari will win (votes: 3 - 7.9%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 28 - 73.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 18.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 59.7% – 87.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fiorentina (1.34) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Fiorentina (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Fiorentina (1.65) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (10 of 13 users predict this - 76.92%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 15 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Caprile E. (G) 28. Zappa G. 26. Mina Y. 6. Luperto S. 33. Obert A. 14. Deiola A. (C) 16. Prati M. 8. Adopo M. 94. Esposito Se. 90. Folorunsho M. 29. Borrelli G.	43. de Gea D. (G) 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 7. Sohm S. 44. Fagioli N. 21. Gosens R. 27. Ndour C. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
21. Cavuoti N. 24. Ciocci G. (G) 18. Di Pardo A. 17. Felici M. 10. Gaetano G. 3. Idrissi R. 12. Iliev V. (G) 9. Kilicsoy S. 77. Luvumbo Z. 4. Mazzitelli L. 22. Vinciguerra A.	61. Braschi R. 11. Dzeko E. 22. Fazzini J. 29. Fortini N. 23. Kospo E. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 8. Mandragora R. 18. Mari P. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 65. Parisi F. 24. Richardson A. 17. Sabiri A. 26. Viti M.
Coaches
Pisacane F.	Pioli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Obert A. 🟨,
45+1', Borrelli G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ranieri L. ↓, Viti M. ↑,
46', Ndour C. ↓, Mandragora R. ↑,
61', Esposito Se. ↓, Luvumbo Z. ↑,
61', Prati M. ↓, Mazzitelli L. ↑,
62', Comuzzo P. ↓, Mari P. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Mandragora R. ⚽, Gudmundsson A. (A),
71', Pongracic M. 🟨,
72', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
75', Obert A. ↓, Idrissi R. ↑,
75', Deiola A. ↓, Gaetano G. ↑,
77', Gosens R. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
79', Mari P. 🟨,
81', Borrelli G. ↓, Kilicsoy S. ↑,
82', Mazzitelli L. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Luperto S. ⚽, Gaetano G. (A),
90+7', Kilicsoy S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cagliari won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Fiorentina has had a series of away games.

Fiorentina could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Cagliari: Pavoletti L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Barak A. (Injury) Kouame C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cagliari: Gaetano G. (Inactive) Pintus N. (Injury) Radunovic B. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cagliari won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:31. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Cagliari won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 1.5:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Fiorentina - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 40.95%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cagliari Calcio
Coppa Italia
16.08.25	Cagliari - Virtus Entella	2:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Racing Santander - Cagliari	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Racing Santander - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	Cagliari - Saint-Étienne	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Hannover - Cagliari	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTTWL
- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Polissya Zhytomyr - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Manchester United - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
05.08.25	Nottingham Forest - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
03.08.25	Leicester City - Fiorentina	2:0 ✺
25.07.25	Fiorentina - Carrarese	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
23.04.25	Cagliari - Fiorentina	1:2
08.12.24	Fiorentina - Cagliari	1:0
23.05.24	Cagliari - Fiorentina	2:3
02.10.23	Fiorentina - Cagliari	3:0
23.01.22	Cagliari - Fiorentina	1:1
24.10.21	Fiorentina - Cagliari	3:0
12.05.21	Cagliari - Fiorentina	0:0

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