Match Info

Serie A - Round 38

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Perri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fiorentina		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.5	2.38	Watch
	2.88	3.45	2.42	Watch
	2.96	3.58	2.47
	3.02	3.34	2.5	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.38
	3.01	3.58	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↓ (3)	3.46 ↓ (3.54)	2.44 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
32.9%

Draw
27.7%

Atalanta
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

26.9%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

26.7%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Fiorentina - Atalanta Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). Atalanta will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 65.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 47.1% – 83.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
53. Christensen O. (G) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 3. Rugani D. 21. Gosens R. (C) 80. Fabbian G. 8. Mandragora R. 4. Brescianini M. 17. Harrison J. 91. Piccoli R. 10. Gudmundsson A.	57. Sportiello M. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 4. Hien I. 69. Ahanor H. 16. Bellanova R. 15. De Roon M. (C) 8. Pasalic M. 6. Musah Y. 10. Samardzic L. 7. Sulemana K. 18. Raspadori G.
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 61. Braschi R. 43. de Gea D. (G) 44. Fagioli N. 29. Fortini N. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 27. Ndour C. 5. Pongracic M. 69. Puzzoli G. 19. Solomon M.	5. Bakker M. 29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 17. De Ketelaere C. 19. Djimsiti B. 13. Ederson 23. Kolasinac S. 90. Krstovic N. 40. Obric R. 31. Rossi F. (G) 9. Scamacca G. 45. Vavassori D. 59. Zalewski N. 77. Zappacosta D.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Piccoli R. ⚽, Brescianini M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bellanova R. ↓, Zappacosta D. ↑,
47', Sulemana K. 🟨,
60', Ahanor H. 🟨,
62', Samardzic L. ↓, De Ketelaere C. ↑,
67', Scalvini G. ↓, Djimsiti B. ↑,
67', Brescianini M. ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
67', Rugani D. ↓, Pongracic M. ↑,
76', Gosens R. ↓, Balbo L. ↑,
76', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
81', De Roon M. ↓, Scamacca G. ↑,
81', Sulemana K. ↓, Vavassori D. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Comuzzo P. (Own goal),
87', Christensen O. ↓, Lezzerini L. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 2.

Fiorentina has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atalanta is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Parisi F. (Knee Injury) Ranieri L. (Red Card)

There will not play in Atalanta: Bernasconi L. (Knee Injury) Kossounou O. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Kean M. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 30:37. (average 1.5:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.7:1.3).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Atalanta: 0.79% Fiorentina: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5:7	-2	6
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
17.05.26	Juventus - Fiorentina	0:2 ✺
10.05.26	Fiorentina - Genoa	0:0 ✺
04.05.26	Roma - Fiorentina	4:0 ✺
26.04.26	Fiorentina - Sassuolo	0:0 ✺
20.04.26	Lecce - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WTLTT
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
17.05.26	Atalanta - Bologna	0:1 ✺
10.05.26	Milan - Atalanta	2:3 ✺
02.05.26	Atalanta - Genoa	0:0 ✺
27.04.26	Cagliari - Atalanta	3:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
22.04.26	Atalanta - Lazio	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
30.11.25	Atalanta - Fiorentina	2:0
30.03.25	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:0
15.09.24	Atalanta - Fiorentina	3:2
02.06.24	Atalanta - Fiorentina	2:3
Coppa Italia
24.04.24	Atalanta - Fiorentina	4:1
03.04.24	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:0
Italian Serie A
17.09.23	Fiorentina - Atalanta	3:2

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