Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 5

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo da Mata (Caldas da Rainha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Caldas		Atlético CP

	1	X	2
	2.72	2.92	2.48
	2.97	2.99	2.65
	2.87	3	2.58	Watch
	2.8	2.7	2.5
	2.79	2.85	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (2.85)	2.89 ↑ (2.84)	2.54 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caldas
32.3%

Draw
31.6%

Atlético CP
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

32.2%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

32.7%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Atlético CP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Caldas - Atlético CP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soares W. (G) 91. Vieira J. 3. Pires Gomes J. R. 66. Carreira R. 77. Lopes D. 2. Silva R. 6. Palmerio M. 94. Oliveira F. 10. Januario 33. Tarzan 21. Fernandes D.	99. Dias R. (G) 4. Henriques D. 23. Almeida B. 3. Gonzalez F. 5. Durand V. 60. Marques R. 25. Hernandez S. 8. Sousa C. 7. Barandas M. 96. Herrera J. 17. Silva D.
Substitutes
12. Almeida D. (G) 23. Catarino T. 9. Chaves G. 16. Costa M. 79. Gata J. 17. Goncas 20. Lourenco G. 25. Luis Paulo (G) 4. Pipo	81. Bolivar J. (G) 11. Delcio 29. Dinamite D. 9. Nicolas Souza 19. Okoli F. 6. Pascoal C. 31. Paulinho 38. Santana C. 49. Suker H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', 0 - 1, Barandas M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Januario ↓, Chaves G. ↑,
57', Fernandes D. ↓, Gata J. ↑,
58', Hernandez S. 🟨,
61', Hernandez S. 🟨,
69', Sousa C. ↓, Suker H. ↑,
76', Lopes D. ↓, Catarino T. ↑,
76', Barandas M. ↓, Pascoal C. ↑,
76', Herrera J. ↓, Dinamite D. ↑,
90+3', Santana C. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 1.

Caldas is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Atlético CP has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Caldas won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
07.03.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Caldas - Amora	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Covilhã - Caldas	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Caldas - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWLWW
- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
07.03.26	Amora - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Atlético CP - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	1:5 ✺
15.02.26	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	Atlético CP - Mafra	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
07.12.25	Caldas - Atlético CP	0:1
24.08.25	Atlético CP - Caldas	2:0
19.01.25	Caldas - Atlético CP	1:1
06.10.24	Atlético CP - Caldas	4:0
05.11.23	Atlético CP - Caldas	0:2
08.08.23	Caldas - Atlético CP	3:3

Caldas - Atlético CP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide