Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo da Mata (Caldas da Rainha)


	Caldas		1 Dezembro

	1	X	2
	1.98	3	3.6
	2.09	3.1	4.01
	2.03	3.16	3.84	Watch
	1.99	3.27	3.83	Watch
	1.96	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (2)	3.11 ↑ (3.09)	3.81 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caldas
46%

Draw
29.7%

1 Dezembro
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

29.7%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

28.5%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Caldas have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

1 Dezembro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Caldas - 1 Dezembro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soares W. (G) 3. Pires Gomes J. R. 14. Maneta D. 94. Oliveira F. 66. Carreira R. 8. Clemente D. 10. Januario 6. Palmerio M. 79. Gata J. 33. Tarzan 17. Goncas	1. Duarte F. (G) 7. Ferreira D. 33. Mane L. 44. Gomes C. 23. Menezes L. 24. Edu 55. Vito 13. Bernardo J. 20. Harramiz S. 81. Ferreira D. 11. Isabelinha
Substitutes
12. Almeida D. (G) 23. Catarino T. 9. Chaves G. 25. Farinha L. 21. Fernandes D. 20. Lourenco G. 30. Monteiro E. 4. Pipo 60. Silva R.	88. Abreu M. 77. Andrade Male S. A. 22. Dias G. 26. Freitas J. 6. Lima P. 47. Oliveira J. (G) 2. Ramos P. 17. Sapara A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Ferreira D. ⚽,
45+2', 🟨,
45+3', 🟨,
45+3', Clemente D. 🟨,
45+3', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Goncas ↓, Fernandes D. ↑,
46', Januario ↓, Chaves G. ↑,
46', Gata J. ↓, Pipo ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Oliveira F. ⚽,
57', Ferreira D. ↓, Abreu M. ↑,
57', Isabelinha ↓, Andrade Male S. A. ↑,
62', Harramiz S. ↓, Sapara A. ↑,
62', Andrade Male S. A. ↓, Dias G. ↑,
76', Palmerio M. ↓, Monteiro E. ↑,
85', Sapara A. 🟥,
86', 🟨,
88', Oliveira F. ↓, Farinha L. ↑,
90+2', Pires Gomes J. R. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 1, Farinha L. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 1.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Caldas could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Caldas won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

1 Dezembro - the odds 3.76 are the expected chance of winning is 24.37%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	Caldas - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Caldas - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Mafra - Caldas	4:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.12.25	Caldas - Braga	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLLL
- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	1 Dezembro - Mafra	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	União de Santarém - 1 Dezembro	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
14.12.25	1 Dezembro - Caldas	2:0
14.09.25	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:2
25.01.25	1 Dezembro - Caldas	1:1
27.10.24	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	1:1
04.05.24	1 Dezembro - Caldas	0:1
18.02.24	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:1
11.11.23	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:1

Caldas - 1 Dezembro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide