Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 4

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo Estrela (Evora)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitano GC		Caldas

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.2	4.05
	1.78	3.43	5.01
	1.91	3.3	4.14	Watch
	1.91	3	3.9
	1.87	3.33	4.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (1.92)	3.25 ↑ (3.12)	4.27 ↑ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitano GC
49.8%

Draw
28.5%

Caldas
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

29.4%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

28.8%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Lusitano GC - Caldas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Martins D. (G) 53. Carvalho E. 37. Monteiro R. 4. Santana C. 21. Soares M. 6. Andrade M. 10. Aguas M. 8. Baptista T. 11. Almara F. 9. Lopes D. 30. Davou S.	1. Soares W. (G) 20. Lourenco G. 14. Maneta D. 6. Palmerio M. 30. Monteiro E. 94. Oliveira F. 10. Januario 8. Clemente D. 79. Gata J. 33. Tarzan 91. Vieira J.
Substitutes
14. Cande B. 29. Isnaba G. 44. Lourenco M. 99. Lucao 12. Marcelo Valverde (G) 5. Palancha T. 23. Pereira F. 77. Tipote L. 17. Vicente G.	12. Almeida D. (G) 66. Carreira R. 23. Catarino T. 9. Chaves G. 25. Farinha L. 21. Fernandes D. 17. Goncas 4. Pipo 3. Pires Gomes J. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Clemente D. ↓, Carreira R. ↑,
39', 🟨,
39', Tarzan 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Tarzan (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Baptista T. ↓, Tipote L. ↑,
59', Almara F. ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
65', Januario ↓, Pipo ↑,
65', Vieira J. ↓, Goncas ↑,
65', Gata J. ↓, Fernandes D. ↑,
70', Lopes D. 🟨,
70', Carreira R. 🟨,
72', Soares W. 🟨,
72', Aguas M. ↓, Cande B. ↑,
79', Tarzan ↓, Farinha L. ↑,
80', Maneta D. 🟨,
82', Lopes D. ↓, Isnaba G. ↑,
90', Monteiro R. 🟨,
90+5', Maneta D. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Lusitano GC is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lusitano GC won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Lusitano GC won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano GC
Portuguese Liga 3
28.02.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Lusitano GC - Amora	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWLTW
- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
28.02.26	Caldas - Amora	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Covilhã - Caldas	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Caldas - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
17.01.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	1:0
26.10.25	Caldas - Lusitano GC	2:1

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