Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 6

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo da Mata (Caldas da Rainha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Caldas		Oliveira Hospital

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.4	4.1
	1.77	3.45	4.1
				Watch
	1.7	3.42	4.58
	1.77	3.45	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.98)	3.43 ↑ (3.2)	4.22 ↑ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caldas
52.1%

Draw
26.4%

Oliveira Hospital
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.6%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

27.8%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Caldas's performance.

Oliveira Hospital has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveira Hospital than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Caldas - Oliveira Hospital Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soares W. (G) 49. Castro T. 8. Clemente D. 77. Lopes D. 16. Lopez K. 6. Militao T. (C) 30. Monteiro E. 56. Nhayson 5. Pepo 20. Rafa Pinto 11. Velosa M.	22. Andre Paulo (G) 8. David Bras (C) 16. Geovanny 9. Gracio D. 23. Io S. 19. Michel 11. Neiva G. 44. Pablo Veloso 55. Silva T. 3. Simao A. 30. Vinhas D.
Substitutes
22. Alexandre R. 99. Balelo 17. Barreiras G. 13. Dias R. 7. Farinha L. 10. Januario 25. Luis Paulo (G) 4. Santos D. 2. Yordy Marcelo	66. Carreira R. 12. Fajardo R. 71. Fernandes L. (G) 15. Manoel Atanasio 38. Oliveira M. 17. Pinheiro L. 18. Souza E. 21. Urco 7. Varela A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', Castro T. 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, Geovanny (Pen),
44', Nhayson 🟨,
45+1', Geovanny 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Castro T. ↓, Yordy Marcelo ↑,
63', David Bras 🟨,
64', 1 - 1, Pepo ⚽,
65', Io S. ↓, Oliveira M. ↑,
65', Lopes D. ↓, Alexandre R. ↑,
65', Rafa Pinto ↓, Balelo ↑,
67', Militao T. 🟨,
76', Clemente D. 🟨,
77', Neiva G. ↓, Urco ↑,
84', Monteiro E. ↓, Santos D. ↑,
84', Velosa M. ↓, Farinha L. ↑,
86', Silva T. ↓, Souza E. ↑,
90+1', Vinhas D. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 1, Balelo ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Caldas won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Caldas will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Caldas won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 18:19 (average 1.3:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Caldas won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:5 (average 1.4:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
16.03.25	União de Santarém - Caldas	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Oliveira Hospital - Caldas	3:0 ✺
02.03.25	Caldas - SC Lusitânia	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Académica Coimbra - Caldas	1:2 ✺
15.02.25	Caldas - Covilhã	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLWWL
- Oliveira Hospital
Portuguese Liga 3
16.03.25	Oliveira Hospital - Académica Coimbra	2:2 ✺
09.03.25	Oliveira Hospital - Caldas	3:0 ✺
02.03.25	União de Santarém - Oliveira Hospital	2:0 ✺
23.02.25	Covilhã - Oliveira Hospital	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Oliveira Hospital - SC Lusitânia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
09.03.25	Oliveira Hospital - Caldas	3:0
07.12.24	Oliveira Hospital - Caldas	1:2
24.08.24	Caldas - Oliveira Hospital	2:1
28.04.24	Caldas - Oliveira Hospital	1:1
25.02.24	Oliveira Hospital - Caldas	3:1
17.12.23	Oliveira Hospital - Caldas	2:1
03.09.23	Caldas - Oliveira Hospital	1:1

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