Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 7 - Round 26

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday


	Carabanchel		Alcalá

	1	X	2
	4	3	1.87
	3.7	2.95	2.04
	4.08	3.06	1.94	Watch
	3.97	3.36	1.82
	3.7	2.95	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.89 ↓ (5.73)	3.06 ↓ (3.75)	1.94 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carabanchel
23.4%

Draw
29.7%

Alcalá
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.8%

24.2%

60%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7%

24.1%

60.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carabanchel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carabanchel's performance.

Alcalá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alcalá might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carabanchel than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carabanchel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcalá than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alcalá could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Carabanchel - Alcalá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 1 - 0, Ramirez de Arroba A. ⚽,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Recent matches Carabanchel is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Alcalá is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Alcalá could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Alcalá will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Carabanchel won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.3:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Carabanchel won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1 (average 0:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RCD Carabanchel
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
09.03.25	Rayo Vallecano B - Carabanchel	3:3 ✺
02.03.25	Carabanchel - Leganés B	2:2 ✺
23.02.25	Tres Cantos - Carabanchel	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Carabanchel - Cala Pozuelo	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Carabanchel - El Álamo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TTLWW
- RSD Alcalá
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
09.03.25	Alcalá - El Álamo	4:1 ✺
01.03.25	Collado Villalba - Alcalá	3:2 ✺
23.02.25	Alcalá - Galapagar	5:0 ✺
16.02.25	Trival Valderas - Alcalá	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Alcalá - Aravaca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
03.11.24	Alcalá - Carabanchel	1:0
13.02.22	Alcalá - Carabanchel	1:1
10.10.21	Carabanchel - Alcalá	0:1
11.11.18	Carabanchel - Alcalá	0:0

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