Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Colombia	ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Carabobo		Sporting Cristal

	1	X	2
	2.63	2.8	3	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.7
	2.62	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.69	2.93	2.97
	2.67	2.98	2.92	Watch
	2.63	2.8	2.8	Watch
	2.74	2.96	2.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (4.5)	2.92 ↓ (4.33)	2.89 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carabobo
35.4%

Draw
32.1%

Sporting Cristal
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

21.6%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.9%

22.6%

60.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carabobo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carabobo's performance.

Sporting Cristal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-25.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Cristal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carabobo than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carabobo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+27.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Cristal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	42.9%	7.1%

Carabobo - Sporting Cristal Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Carabobo will win (votes: 7 - 50%). Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carabobo: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Carabobo (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Sporting Cristal (2.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 6 - 60%). Sporting Cristal (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Bruera L. (C) 28. Bilbao J. 32. Neira E. 3. Fuentes J. 8. Perez J. 15. Cova M. 26. Nunez M. 5. Castillo E. 14. Berrios J. 9. Riasco J. 7. Tortolero E.	1. Enriquez D. (G) 90. Cristiano 20. Araujo M. 5. Lutiger R. 27. Gabriel 21. Cabellos C. 25. Tavara M. 19. Yotun Y. (C) 8. Sosa L. 9. Vizeu F. 10. Gonzales C.
Substitutes
4. Aponte L. 6. Bahachille A. 13. Duran J. 2. Guaramato M. 16. Lopez F. 19. Martinez L. 30. Mendoza S. 23. Meza D. 55. Moreno Ciorciari J. J. 17. Oliveros F. 10. Orozco Y. 12. Roa K. (G)	11. Avila I. 33. Bautista C. (G) 14. Benavente C. 55. Cazonatti G. 41. Cuenca J. 32. Diaz L. 18. Gonzalez J. 16. Iberico L. 42. Mellan J. 15. Posito Olazabal A. J. 97. Rodriguez M. 26. Wisdom I.
Coaches
Farias D.	Autuori P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Yotun Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Tavara M. 🟨,
56', Castillo E. ↓, Orozco Y. ↑,
65', Gabriel ↓, Cazonatti G. ↑,
65', Gonzales C. ↓, Avila I. ↑,
66', Avila I. 🟨,
69', Riasco J. ↓, Moreno Ciorciari J. J. ↑,
79', Tortolero E. ↓, Martinez L. ↑,
84', Cabellos C. 🟨,
84', Tavara M. ↓, Posito Olazabal A. J. ↑,
89', Cristiano 🟨,
90+3', Cabellos C. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Carabobo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sporting Cristal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carabobo FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
28.02.26	Carabobo - Caracas	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.02.26	Huachipato - Carabobo	1:2 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
20.02.26	Metropolitanos - Carabobo	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.02.26	Carabobo - Huachipato	1:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
13.02.26	Carabobo - Monagas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWTWW
- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1
28.02.26	Sport Huancayo - Sporting Cristal	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.02.26	Sporting Cristal - 2 de Mayo	1:0 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
21.02.26	Sporting Cristal - Universitario de Deportes	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.02.26	2 de Mayo - Sporting Cristal	2:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
14.02.26	Juan Pablo II College - Sporting Cristal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWTTW

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