Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 5

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadio Sandro Cabassi (Carpi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257


	Carpi		Ospitaletto

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.80	3.00	2.25
	2.48	3.00	2.55	Watch
	2.93	3.15	2.54
	2.95	3.13	2.33	Watch
	2.90	3.05	2.45
	3.00	3.13	2.40	Watch
	2.80	3.10	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.42)	3.08 ↑ (3.05)	2.41 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carpi
32.3%

Draw
29.7%

Ospitaletto
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.7%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

31%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carpi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carpi's form might have worsened.

Ospitaletto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ospitaletto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carpi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospitaletto than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ospitaletto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Carpi - Ospitaletto Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Carpi will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ospitaletto will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Scacchetti A. (G) 4. Zagnoni D. (C) 19. Rossini M. 24. Desole F. 25. Vaglica G. 5. Figoli M. 6. Astrologo A. 10. Casarini F. 23. Morosini L. 9. Montipo M. 11. Puletto F.	22. Ferrante M. (G) 16. Gualandris M. 4. Nessi R. 3. Possenti M. 20. Casali M. 28. Panatti M. (C) 45. Valente M. 26. Mondini G. 43. Guarneri M. 7. Messaggi C. 21. Torri A.
Substitutes
8. Bagatti N. 18. Carcani T. 7. Cecotti T. 21. Forapani M. 22. Gasperini T. (G) 44. Gatti R. 27. Giva N. 17. Lombardi L. 2. Maggio S. 16. Nesi L. 12. Perta A. A. (G) 83. Sall A. 90. Vitale V. 14. Zarpellon L.	10. Cantamessa S. 1. Fratti C. (G) 14. Galuppini F. 55. Mundi R. (G) 18. Paganotti M. 15. Parmiggiani P. 17. Plutnik A. 11. Ragnoli Galli F. 77. Stefanoni D. 8. Tigani E. 24. Valota G.
Coaches
Cassani S.	Quaresmini A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Messaggi C. ⚽, Valente M. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Rossini M. ⚽, Desole F. (A),
24', 2 - 1, Casarini F. ⚽,
32', Valente M. 🟨,
34', Figoli M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Possenti M. ↓, Parmiggiani P. ↑,
59', Valente M. ↓, Stefanoni D. ↑,
66', 2 - 2, Guarneri M. ⚽,
67', Montipo M. ↓, Sall A. ↑,
68', Figoli M. ↓, Forapani M. ↑,
68', Zagnoni D. ↓, Gatti R. ↑,
74', Torri A. ↓, Cantamessa S. ↑,
74', Messaggi C. ↓, Galuppini F. ↑,
81', Cantamessa S. 🟨,
84', Casarini F. ↓, Nesi L. ↑,
85', Desole F. 🟨,
87', Guarneri M. ↓, Ragnoli Galli F. ↑,
87', Desole F. ↓, Lombardi L. ↑,
90', Vaglica G. 🟨,
90+1', Mondini G. 🟨,
90+6', Rossini M. 🟨,

Preview

Carpi has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ospitaletto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Ospitaletto	8	4	3	1	14:6	8	15
16	Carpi	9	1	3	5	11:19	-8	6

Last Results with these Odds

Carpi - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.4%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group A
13.09.26	Carpi - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	AlbinoLeffe - Carpi	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Carpi - Pro Vercelli	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie C Group A
30.08.26	Carpi - Juventus U23	3:3 ✺
21.08.26	Brescia - Carpi	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWWTL
- CPR Ospitaletto
Italian Serie C Group A
13.09.26	Ospitaletto - Juventus U23	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Ospitaletto - Union ArzignanoChiampo	3:1 ✺
31.08.26	AlbinoLeffe - Ospitaletto	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Ospitaletto - Lumezzane	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
14.08.26	Trento - Ospitaletto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWTWL

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