Match Info

Serie B - Round 6

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadio dei Marmi (Carrara)

Referee: Galipo S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Carrarese		Modena

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.1	2.15	Watch
	3.35	3	2.22	Watch
	3.72	3.11	2.25
	2.85	3.17	2.48	Watch
	3.45	3.13	2.27	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (2.72)	3.12 ↓ (3.22)	2.32 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carrarese
28.9%

Draw
30.3%

Modena
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

29.1%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

28.4%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carrarese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carrarese's form might have worsened.

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carrarese than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	27.8%	61.1%

Carrarese - Modena Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Carrarese will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Modena will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 27.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Modena: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Carrarese (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Modena (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Carrarese (2.43) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Carrarese (1.61) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Carrarese (votes: 3 - 30%). Modena (votes: 5 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bleve M. (G) 26. Ruggeri F. 4. Illanes J. 3. Imperiale M. 72. Zanon S. 18. Schiavi N. 17. Zuelli E. 11. Cicconi M. 9. Abiuso F. 32. Finotto M. 10. Bozhanaj K.	1. Chichizola L. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 25. Dellavalle A. 28. Adorni D. 98. Zanimacchia L. 18. Pyyhtia N. 16. Gerli F. 6. Magnino L. 7. Zampano F. 92. Defrel G. 11. Mendes P.
Substitutes
7. Belloni N. 13. Bouah D. 37. Calabrese N. 28. Di Stefano F. 99. Fiorillo V. (G) 70. Hasa L. 8. Melegoni F. 6. Oliana F. 77. Parlanti G. 21. Rubino T. 44. Sekulov N. 92. Torregrossa E.	78. Bagheria F. (G) 10. Caso G. 33. Cauz C. 29. Cotali M. 23. Di Mariano F. 9. Gliozzi E. 17. Massolin Y. 19. Nador S. 20. Nieling B. 3. Ponsi F. 8. Santoro S. 5. Sersanti A.
Coaches
Calabro A.	Sottil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Dellavalle A. 🟨,
43', Pyyhtia N. 🟨,
45+2', Schiavi N. 🟨,
45+3', Calabro A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pyyhtia N. ↓, Santoro S. ↑,
48', Tonoli D. 🟨,
54', Magnino L. 🟨,
55', Illanes J. 🟨,
62', Defrel G. ↓, Di Mariano F. ↑,
62', Zanimacchia L. ↓, Cotali M. ↑,
62', Mendes P. ↓, Gliozzi E. ↑,
68', Abiuso F. ↓, Sekulov N. ↑,
68', Bozhanaj K. ↓, Hasa L. ↑,
80', Schiavi N. ↓, Rubino T. ↑,
80', Zanon S. ↓, Bouah D. ↑,
82', Magnino L. ↓, Sersanti A. ↑,
85', Finotto M. ↓, Torregrossa E. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Recent performances by Carrarese have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Modena is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Modena might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Carrarese: Mazzini S. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Modena: Beyuku G. (International duty) Pergreffi A. (Inactive) Strizzolo L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Carrarese: Hasa L. (Inactive) Illanes J. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Carrarese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Carrarese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carrarese Calcio
Italian Serie B
28.09.25	Empoli - Carrarese	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Carrarese - Avellino	3:4 ✺
13.09.25	Catanzaro - Carrarese	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Carrarese - Padova	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Spezia - Carrarese	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 TLTTW
- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
28.09.25	Modena - Pescara	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Mantova - Modena	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Modena - Bari	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Modena - Avellino	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Sampdoria - Modena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
04.05.25	Carrarese - Modena	2:1
09.11.24	Modena - Carrarese	2:0
Italian Serie C Group B
12.03.22	Carrarese - Modena	2:3
31.10.21	Modena - Carrarese	2:0

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