Match Info

Serie B - Round 32

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Modena		Mantova

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	6	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.6
	1.58	3.9	5.3	Watch
	1.62	4.15	5.59
	1.61	4.06	5.1	Watch
	1.57	3.8	5
	1.61	3.88	5.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.54)	3.9 ↓ (4.03)	5.27 ↓ (5.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
58.3%

Draw
24%

Mantova
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

23%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

24%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Mantova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Modena than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	23.1%	7.7%

Modena - Mantova Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Mantova will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Modena: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Modena (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chichizola L. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 28. Adorni D. 20. Nieling B. 7. Zampano F. 5. Sersanti A. 16. Gerli F. (C) 8. Santoro S. 98. Zanimacchia L. 99. De Luca M. 9. Gliozzi E.	24. Bardi F. (G) 3. Dembele A. 29. Cella S. 27. Castellini A. 17. Radaelli N. 21. Trimboli S. 80. Kouda R. 50. Benaissa-Yahia F. 23. Marras T. 77. Buso N. 9. Mancuso L. (C)
Substitutes
10. Ambrosino G. 2. Beyuku G. 33. Cauz C. 29. Cotali M. 92. Defrel G. 25. Dellavalle A. 90. Imputato A. 17. Massolin Y. 11. Mendes P. 19. Nador S. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 71. Wiafe S.	30. Bragantini D. 28. Caprini M. 5. Chrysopoulos K. 18. Falletti C. 20. Ligue J. 96. Maggioni T. 7. Mensah D. 11. Muci N. 36. Paoletti F. 19. Ruocco F. 34. Vukovic A. (G) 10. Wieser D.
Coaches
Sottil A.	Modesto F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Sersanti A. ⚽, Gliozzi E. (A),
31', Zampano F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sersanti A. ↓, Wiafe S. ↑,
46', Marras T. ↓, Caprini M. ↑,
46', Buso N. ↓, Bragantini D. ↑,
59', 2 - 0, Tonoli D. ⚽,
62', Radaelli N. 🟨,
65', Radaelli N. ↓, Maggioni T. ↑,
70', Gliozzi E. ↓, Ambrosino G. ↑,
71', Zampano F. ↓, Beyuku G. ↑,
76', Dembele A. ↓, Mensah D. ↑,
76', Mancuso L. ↓, Falletti C. ↑,
79', Kouda R. 🟨,
81', 2 - 1, Mensah D. ⚽, Kouda R. (A),
87', Zanimacchia L. ↓, Cotali M. ↑,
89', Castellini A. 🟨,
90', De Luca M. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,
90+5', Mensah D. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Modena won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Mantova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Modena is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Modena: Defrel G. (Inactive) Pyyhtia N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Mantova: Bianay Balcot C. (Injury) Bonfanti N. (Inactive) Ruocco F. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mantova: Ligue J. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Modena won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.3:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Modena won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	10:5	5	11
6	Modena	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
13.03.26	Modena - Spezia	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Modena - Cesena	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	Virtus Entella - Modena	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Modena - Padova	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Juve Stabia - Modena	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTLLW
- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
17.03.26	Mantova - Cesena	3:0 ✺
14.03.26	Empoli - Mantova	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Mantova - Juve Stabia	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Palermo - Mantova	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Mantova - Carrarese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
20.09.25	Mantova - Modena	1:3
01.02.25	Modena - Mantova	3:1
30.11.24	Mantova - Modena	0:0
Italian Serie C Group B
14.03.21	Modena - Mantova	1:1
16.11.20	Mantova - Modena	0:0
30.04.17	Modena - Mantova	2:0
11.12.16	Mantova - Modena	1:0

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