Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Casatese		Pro Patria

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.00	2.35
	2.85	2.95	2.28
	2.73	3.09	2.49	Watch
	2.85	3.00	2.25
	2.72	3.14	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↓ (3)	3.04 ↑ (3)	2.4 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casatese
32.5%

Draw
29.8%

Pro Patria
37.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.7%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casatese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Pro Patria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casatese than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Casatese - Pro Patria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Baraye Y. ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, Isella M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
88', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 6th and 3rd in the Promotion - Serie D - Group D Playoffs).

In recent outings, Casatese has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Pro Patria shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Casatese could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Pro Patria	9	6	2	1	14:6	8	20
9	USD Casatese	9	4	1	4	13:14	-1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Casatese - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 29.73%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Pro Patria - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 40.54%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USD Casatese
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.10.26	Cittadella Vis Modena - Casatese	0:1 ✺
04.10.26	Casatese - Pistoiese	0:3 ✺
27.09.26	Casatese - Varesina	4:2 ✺
20.09.26	Correggese - Casatese	1:3 ✺
16.09.26	Casatese - SantAngelo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLWWL
- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.10.26	Pro Patria - SantAngelo	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
07.10.26	Varese - Pro Patria	2:5 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group D
04.10.26	Varesina - Pro Patria	0:0 ✺
27.09.26	Pro Patria - Solbiatese	0:1 ✺
16.09.26	Pro Patria - Crema	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTLW

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