Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Casatese		Virtus CiseranoBergamo

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.25	3.35
	2.03	3.31	3.34	Watch
	2.04	3.24	3.31
	2.05	3.2	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (2.01)	3.25 ↓ (3.48)	3.33 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casatese
44.8%

Draw
27.9%

Virtus CiseranoBergamo
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

26.2%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

25.1%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casatese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Virtus CiseranoBergamo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casatese than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Virtus CiseranoBergamo aligns with the current prediction.

Casatese - Virtus CiseranoBergamo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
68', 0 - 1, Ferrario C. ⚽,
90+5', 0 - 2, Viscardi D. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group B (Play Offs: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casatese won 2.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Casatese is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Casatese won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Casatese won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.3:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ciserano-Bergamo	6	2	3	1	8:4	4	9

Last Results with these Odds

Casatese - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 45.46%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USD Casatese
Italian Serie D - Group B
21.12.25	Leon - Casatese	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Casatese - Scanzorosciate	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Pavia - Casatese	3:3 ✺
30.11.25	Casatese - Vogherese	4:1 ✺
23.11.25	Castellanzese - Casatese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTTWW
- Virtus CiseranoBergamo
Italian Serie D - Group B
21.12.25	Castellanzese - Virtus CiseranoBergamo	3:1 ✺
14.12.25	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Pavia	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Vogherese - Virtus CiseranoBergamo	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Villa Valle	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Varesina - Virtus CiseranoBergamo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
03.03.24	Casatese - Virtus CiseranoBergamo	2:2
28.10.23	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Casatese	2:0
12.03.23	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Casatese	0:2
06.11.22	Casatese - Virtus CiseranoBergamo	0:2
15.05.22	Casatese - Virtus CiseranoBergamo	2:1
23.01.22	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Casatese	2:0
21.03.21	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Casatese	0:2

Casatese - Virtus CiseranoBergamo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide