Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Pavia		Casatese

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.10	2.45
	2.55	3.05	2.45
	2.6	3.16	2.55	Watch
	2.5	3	2.45
	2.54	3.15	2.43
	2.5	3.1	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.85)	3.09 ↑ (3)	2.46 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Pavia
35.1%

Draw
28.8%

Casatese
36.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.6%

30%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

30.1%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Casatese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavia than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casatese than the current prediction. (+2%)

Pavia - Casatese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
61', 2 - 0, ⚽,
70', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+1', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 12th and 6th).

Pavia is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Casatese has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Pavia has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:6 (averaging 3:3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pavia against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:3 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	USD Casatese	9	4	1	4	13:14	-1	13
10	Pavia	9	2	5	2	10:7	3	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavia Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group D
18.10.26	Pistoiese - Pavia	1:0 ✺
11.10.26	Pavia - Varesina	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
07.10.26	Pavia - SantAngelo	1:3 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group D
04.10.26	Correggese - Pavia	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Pavia - Arconatese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLT
- USD Casatese
Italian Serie D - Group D
18.10.26	Casatese - Pro Patria	1:2 ✺
11.10.26	Cittadella Vis Modena - Casatese	0:1 ✺
04.10.26	Casatese - Pistoiese	0:3 ✺
27.09.26	Casatese - Varesina	4:2 ✺
20.09.26	Correggese - Casatese	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
19.04.26	Casatese - Pavia	3:3
07.12.25	Pavia - Casatese	3:3

Pavia - Casatese