Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday


	Castelfidardo		Ostia Mare

	1	X	2
	5.35	3.8	1.5
	4.42	3.83	1.65	Watch
	5.36	3.64	1.57
	5	3.7	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.03 ↑ (2.68)	3.74 ↑ (3.35)	1.58 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castelfidardo
18.1%

Draw
24.3%

Ostia Mare
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

26.9%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

26.6%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castelfidardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Castelfidardo's form might have worsened.

Ostia Mare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ostia Mare's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castelfidardo than the current prediction. (+15.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Castelfidardo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ostia Mare than the current prediction. (-17.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ostia Mare, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Castelfidardo - Ostia Mare Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Spinosa M. ⚽,
22', 0 - 2, Vianni S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90', 0 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Castelfidardo has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ostia Mare is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Castelfidardo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ostia Mare is a strong favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castelfidardo Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
19.10.25	San Marino Calcio - Castelfidardo	1:0 ✺
12.10.25	Castelfidardo - Atletico Ascoli	1:6 ✺
05.10.25	Termoli - Castelfidardo	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	Castelfidardo - Ancona	0:1 ✺
24.09.25	Notaresco - Castelfidardo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLTLL
- AS Ostia Mare Lido Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
19.10.25	Ostia Mare - Fossombrone	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	Ostia Mare - Sora	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	Atletico Ascoli - Ostia Mare	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Ostia Mare - Vigor Senigallia	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	San Marino Calcio - Ostia Mare	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWW

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