Match Info
Tercera RFEF - Group 3 - Round 24Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
Castro |
|
Barquereño |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.68 |
3.4 |
4.45 |
|
 |
1.67 |
3.57 |
4.89 |
|
 |
1.7 |
3.59 |
4.56 |
|
 |
1.67 |
3.3 |
4.8 |
|
 |
1.81 |
3.77 |
3.98 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.71 ↑
(1.66) |
3.53 ↓
(3.65) |
4.54 ↑
(4.42) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
- The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Castro
53.8% | Draw
26% | Barquereño
20.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Castro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)Barquereño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castro than the current prediction. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barquereño than the current prediction. (-0.1%)Castro - Barquereño Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 27', 0 - 1, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 55', 1 - 1, ⚽,
- 73', 2 - 1, ⚽,
- 90', (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 12).Recent form of Castro has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).Barquereño has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Barquereño may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Castro is seen as the favorite.In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Castro won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.8:0.5).Including home match between the teams, Castro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 11 | Castro | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 5 |
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|
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| 18 | CD Barquereno | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2:11 | -9 | 1 |
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3 | | | 19.10.25 | Barquereño - Castro | 0:0 | | 26.01.25 | Castro - Barquereño | 2:0 | | 15.09.24 | Barquereño - Castro | 0:0 | | 18.04.21 | Barquereño - Castro | 2:1 |
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