Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday


	Castro		Atlético Albericia

	1	X	2
	2.68	2.82	2.62
	2.66	2.82	2.83
	2.79	2.27	3.53	Watch
	2.6	2.75	2.75
	2.58	2.8	2.72
	2.66	2.71	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↓ (4)	2.7 ↓ (3.15)	2.88 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castro
34.3%

Draw
33.9%

Atlético Albericia
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

28.3%

49.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

26.9%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castro's performance.

Atlético Albericia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Albericia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castro than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Albericia than the current prediction. (+20.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Albericia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Castro - Atlético Albericia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', 0 - 1, ⚽,
85', 0 - 2, ⚽,
90+6', 🟥,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castro won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Castro is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Castro won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Castro won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Castro	5	1	2	2	4:6	-2	5
16	Atletico Albericia	5	0	1	4	3:9	-6	1

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Albericia - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 49.47%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castro FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
08.02.26	Castro - Cayón	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Montañas del Pas - Castro	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Vimenor - Castro	3:1 ✺
11.01.26	Tropezón - Castro	3:1 ✺
04.01.26	Castro - Cartes	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLLW
- Atlético Albericia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
08.02.26	Atlético Albericia - Guarnizo	1:3 ✺
01.02.26	Cayón - Atlético Albericia	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Montañas del Pas - Atlético Albericia	3:2 ✺
11.01.26	Selaya - Atlético Albericia	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Atlético Albericia - Escobedo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
04.10.25	Atlético Albericia - Castro	2:0
06.10.24	Castro - Atlético Albericia	0:2
28.03.24	Castro - Atlético Albericia	2:1
11.11.23	Atlético Albericia - Castro	3:0
06.04.23	Castro - Atlético Albericia	1:1
10.12.22	Atlético Albericia - Castro	0:0
03.04.22	Castro - Atlético Albericia	1:1

Castro - Atlético Albericia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide