Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 - Round 34

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday


	Castro		Barreda Balompié

	1	X	2
	2.28	4.1	2.39
	2.76	4.55	1.9
	2.43	4.17	2.29
	2.81	3.54	2.17
	2.28	4.1	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (1.45)	4.09 ↓ (4.45)	2.23 ↓ (5.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castro
36.5%

Draw
22.4%

Barreda Balompié
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

20.3%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

19.5%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-25.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Castro's form might have worsened.

Barreda Balompié has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+23.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barreda Balompié's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castro than the current prediction. (+28.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Castro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barreda Balompié than the current prediction. (-24.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Barreda Balompié, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Castro - Barreda Balompié Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Barreda (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Barreda (votes: 1 - 100%).

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Diez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 1 - 1, ⚽,
83', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 2, Franco Y. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 3 (Play Offs: ) and 13).

Castro is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Barreda has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Barreda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Castro is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Castro won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Castro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castro FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
04.05.25	Torina - Castro	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	Gama - Castro	3:4 ✺
13.04.25	Castro - Naval Reinosa	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Castro - Cayón	0:0 ✺
23.03.25	Bezana - Castro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWWTT
- Barreda Balompié
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
04.05.25	Barreda Balompié - Siete Villas	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Atlético Albericia - Barreda Balompié	2:1 ✺
17.04.25	Barreda Balompié - Guarnizo	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Vimenor - Barreda Balompié	5:4 ✺
30.03.25	Tropezón - Barreda Balompié	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
11.01.25	Barreda Balompié - Castro	0:0
19.02.22	Barreda Balompié - Castro	0:2
23.10.21	Castro - Barreda Balompié	2:1
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
15.09.17	Barreda Balompié - Castro	3:1

Castro - Barreda Balompié: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide