Match Info

PORTUGAL: CAMPEONATO DE PORTUGAL - ROUND 18

Date: 12 February 2023, Sunday


	Castro Daire		Rebordosa

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2
	3.3	3.3	1.95
	4.08	2.88	2.06
	3.78	3.13	1.94
	3.35	3.15	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↓ (4.58)	3.11 ↓ (3.74)	2 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castro Daire
25.5%

Draw
29.2%

Rebordosa
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.8%

24.2%

56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

23.6%

57.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castro Daire has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castro Daire's performance.

Rebordosa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rebordosa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castro Daire than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castro Daire that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rebordosa than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rebordosa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal (Play Offs)).

Castro Daire is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Rebordosa is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Rebordosa will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Castro Daire won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Castro Daire
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
05.02.23	Alpendorada - Castro Daire	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	Castro Daire - Valadares Gaia	0:1 ✺
22.01.23	Camacha - Castro Daire	0:0 ✺
15.01.23	Castro Daire - Machico	0:1 ✺
18.12.22	Resende - Castro Daire	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLTLT
- Rebordosa AC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
05.02.23	Rebordosa - Beira-Mar	0:0 ✺
29.01.23	Marítimo B - Rebordosa	1:1 ✺
22.01.23	Rebordosa - Guarda Desportiva	2:0 ✺
15.01.23	Lusitânia - Rebordosa	2:0 ✺
08.01.23	Gondomar - Rebordosa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
30.10.22	Rebordosa - Castro Daire	2:0

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