The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Castrovillari 21.1%
Draw 24.6%
San Luca 54.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28.6%
26.7%
44.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
29.2%
26.2%
43.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Castrovillari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Castrovillari's form might have worsened.
San Luca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Luca's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castrovillari than the current prediction. (+8.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Castrovillari, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Luca than the current prediction. (-10.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for San Luca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Palma M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
66', 2 - 0, Palma M. ⚽,
67', 🟥,
90+2', 2 - 1, Apostu A. ⚽,
Preview
We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: ) and 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: )).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Castrovillari won 0.
Castrovillari is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches San Luca is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Castrovillari could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
San Luca will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 7 head-to-head matches Castrovillari won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-13.
Including matches at home between the teams Castrovillari won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-6.
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