Match Info

Premier League - Round 20

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadium East (Kingston)


	Cavalier		Tivoli Gardens

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.35	4.15
	1.7	3.45	4.55
	1.74	3.63	4.56	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.2
	1.7	3.42	4.54	Watch
	1.68	3.4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.91)	3.39 ↓ (3.4)	4.42 ↑ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cavalier
52.7%

Draw
26.7%

Tivoli Gardens
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

26.8%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

26.1%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cavalier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Tivoli Gardens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cavalier than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tivoli Gardens than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Cavalier - Tivoli Gardens Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
82', 1 - 0, ⚽,
84', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cavalier won 1.

Cavalier is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tivoli Gardens's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cavalier may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Cavalier could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cavalier won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:15. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Cavalier won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Tivoli	4	2	2	0	7:2	5	8
6	Cavalier	3	2	1	0	6:4	2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cavalier FC
Jamaica National Premier League
21.01.26	Cavalier - Dunbeholden	5:1 ✺
11.01.26	Waterhouse - Cavalier	0:0 ✺
05.01.26	Cavalier - Arnett Gardens	0:3 ✺
28.12.25	Harbour View - Cavalier	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Chapelton Maroons - Cavalier	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTLWW
- Tivoli Gardens FC
Jamaica National Premier League
22.01.26	Tivoli Gardens - Racing United	0:0 ✺
19.01.26	Molynes United - Tivoli Gardens	3:2 ✺
15.01.26	Tivoli Gardens - Montego Bay United	0:1 ✺
12.01.26	Spanish Town Police - Tivoli Gardens	0:1 ✺
05.01.26	Tivoli Gardens - Portmore United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Jamaica National Premier League
05.10.25	Tivoli Gardens - Cavalier	0:2
03.04.25	Tivoli Gardens - Cavalier	1:1
30.01.25	Cavalier - Tivoli Gardens	0:0
03.11.24	Tivoli Gardens - Cavalier	1:1
22.01.24	Tivoli Gardens - Cavalier	0:0
21.12.23	Cavalier - Tivoli Gardens	1:1
02.04.23	Tivoli Gardens - Cavalier	0:1

Cavalier - Tivoli Gardens: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide