Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 15

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Caxias		Botafogo PB

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.00	3.50
	1.88	3.30	4.10	Watch
	2.03	3.10	3.60
	1.95	3.36	3.77	Watch
	2.01	2.60	3.55
	2.04	3.13	3.86	Watch
	1.96	2.95	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.91)	3.06 ↓ (3.25)	3.72 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
46%

Draw
29.6%

Botafogo PB
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

28.5%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

28%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Botafogo PB has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo PB than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Caxias - Botafogo PB Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Busatto G. (G) 5. Breno Santos 7. Calyson 2. Felipe Albuquerque 3. Ianson 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 10. Joao Lucas 4. Mancha 8. Marcelo Freitas (C) 9. Quirino 6. Roberto	27. Luiz Daniel (G) 77. Bastos R. 2. Diogo Mateus 7. Dudu Hatamoto 8. Igor Maduro 14. Igor Morais 5. Jhonata Varela 15. Kayon 10. Nene (C) 6. Patric Calmon 4. Saimon
Substitutes
17. Dentinho 20. Felipe Rangel 23. Gabriel Toebe (G) 21. Gaspar 15. Grigor 12. Marcelo (G) 22. Matheus Nunes 14. Mauricio Ribeiro 16. Victor Sa 11. Vitor Feijao 18. Vitor Gabriel 13. Windson	30. Alves L. M. 16. Bull 12. Erick 18. Giovanni 31. Gustavo 36. Italo 21. Leandro Mathias (G) 22. Leo 28. Lucas Candido 87. Lucas Couto 20. Thallyson
Coaches
Marcelo Cabo	Fernandes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Patric Calmon 🟨,
31', Roberto 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Breno Santos ⚽,
45+3', Breno Santos 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Patric Calmon ↓, Bull ↑,
58', Jhonata Varela ↓, Lucas Candido ↑,
58', Kayon ↓, Giovanni ↑,
59', Roberto ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
59', Joao Lucas ↓, Matheus Nunes ↑,
59', Calyson ↓, Dentinho ↑,
72', Diogo Mateus ↓, Leo ↑,
74', Saimon 🟨,
74', Breno Santos ↓, Grigor ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Ianson (Own goal),
80', 1 - 2, Bastos R. ⚽,
81', Marcelo Freitas ↓, Gaspar ↑,
82', Dudu Hatamoto ↓, Thallyson ↑,
90+7', Bastos R. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 9 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ))

Caxias has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Botafogo PB is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Caxias may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Caxias is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Caxias won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
11.07.26	Caxias - Floresta	0:0 ✺
04.07.26	Ferroviária - Caxias	0:1 ✺
30.06.26	Caxias - Anápolis	1:1 ✺
21.06.26	Caxias - Maringá	1:1 ✺
13.06.26	Guarani - Caxias	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWTTL
- Botafogo PB
Brazilian Serie C
12.07.26	Botafogo PB - Confiança	2:0 ✺
05.07.26	Anápolis - Botafogo PB	0:2 ✺
30.06.26	Botafogo PB - Brusque	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Botafogo PB - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
15.06.26	Ypiranga - Botafogo PB	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
14.06.25	Botafogo PB - Caxias	1:2
28.04.24	Botafogo PB - Caxias	1:1

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