Match Info

Copa Sul-Sudeste - Round 1

Date: 24 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)


	Caxias		Operário Ferroviario

	1	X	2
	1.79	3.25	4.41
	1.95	3	3.6
	1.72	3.25	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.6)	3.17 ↑ (3)	4.24 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
49.9%

Draw
28.7%

Operário Ferroviario
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

29.8%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

30.2%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Caxias's performance.

Operário Ferroviario has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Operário Ferroviario might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Caxias that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Operário Ferroviario could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Caxias - Operário Ferroviario Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Busatto G. (G) 7. Calyson 2. Felipe Albuquerque 9. Felipe Rangel 3. Ianson 10. Joao Lucas 11. Luis Miguel 8. Marcelo Freitas (C) 5. Matheus Nunes 4. Mauricio Ribeiro 6. Victor Sa	1. Diego Monteiro (G) 4. Andre 25. Bernardo Rodrigues 39. Carlos Miguel 3. Charles Raphael (C) 28. Dudu Mosconi 18. Favero 23. Joao Gabriel 19. Kaua Gomes 17. Matheus Galdino 9. Torres Jayme J.
Substitutes
16. Arthur Viana 15. Breno Santos 23. Gabriel Toebe (G) 18. Gaspar 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 14. Luis Fernando 12. Marcelo (G) 17. Vitor Feijao 13. Windson	21. Dyego 99. Germano 8. Henrique 30. Kayo Fernandes 16. Renan Gustavo 12. Talles Lima (G) 34. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Joao Lucas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Matheus Nunes ↓, Breno Santos ↑,
58', Marcelo Freitas ↓, Luis Fernando ↑,
63', Diego Monteiro 🟨,
65', Favero ↓, Henrique ↑,
68', Joao Lucas ↓, Vitor Feijao ↑,
68', Luis Miguel ↓, Gaspar ↑,
78', Bernardo Rodrigues ↓, Vitinho ↑,
78', Torres Jayme J. ↓, Renan Gustavo ↑,
82', Felipe Rangel ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,
87', Carlos Miguel 🟨,
88', Calyson 🟨,
89', Andre ↓, Kayo Fernandes ↑,
89', Matheus Galdino ↓, Germano ↑,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Caxias has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Operário PR is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Caxias may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Caxias has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Caxias - Guarany de Bagé	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
21.02.26	Caxias - São Luiz	0:2 penalties ✺
16.02.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Caxias - Ypiranga	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Caxias - Internacional RS	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL
- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Operário Ferroviario - Atlético Goianiense	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Londrina - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 ✺
12.03.26	Operário Ferroviario - Capital CF Ltda	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
07.03.26	Londrina - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 penalties ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.03.26	Betim - Operário Ferroviario	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WWWWW

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