Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Round 1

Date: 25 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)


	Ceará		ABC

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.5	7.5
	1.46	4.2	6
	1.36	4.15	7.5
	1.36	4.45	9.31
	1.35	4.46	8.05	Watch
	1.36	4	8.5
	1.34	4.15	8.7	Watch
	1.39	3.95	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.44)	4.23 ↓ (4.33)	7.95 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
66.9%

Draw
21.6%

ABC
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

20.7%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.4%

20.3%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ABC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and ABC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ABC than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ABC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ceará - ABC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 33. Eder (C) 11. Fernandinho 17. Fernando 31. Lucas Lima 4. Luiz Otavio 8. Matheus Araujo 98. Matheusinho 2. Ramos R. 25. Vinicius Zanocelo 9. Wendel Silva	1. Matheus Alves (G) 23. Cayo Tenorio 5. Edson 13. Fabao 16. Jefferson Vinicius 7. Jhosefer 25. Joao Pedro 4. Lucas Souza 18. Luiz Fernando 22. Randerson 11. Wallyson
Substitutes
86. Aloisio 88. Caio 63. Gilmar 35. Giulio 41. Gustavo Martins (G) 81. Joao Gabriel 10. Juan Alano 18. Julio Cesar 99. Lucca 40. Melk 26. Richardson 12. Sanchez	14. Brunao 17. Bruno Leite 20. de Sousa Oliveira T. 6. Dudu Mandai 9. Emanuel Junio 8. Geilson 21. Lima 12. Rodolfo Castro (G) 3. Wellington Carvalho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Lucas Lima 🟨,
18', Cayo Tenorio 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Vinicius Zanocelo ⚽,
29', 🟨,
30', Matheusinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Luiz Fernando ↓, Brunao ↑,
46', Joao Pedro ↓, Wellington Carvalho ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Wallyson ⚽,
64', Fernando ↓, Sanchez ↑,
65', Lucas Lima ↓, Richardson ↑,
65', Matheus Araujo ↓, Melk ↑,
65', Matheusinho ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
65', Fabao ↓, Geilson ↑,
67', Fernandinho 🟨,
79', Fernandinho ↓, Lucca ↑,
89', Wallyson ↓, Lima ↑,
89', Randerson 🟨,
90+2', Vinicius Zanocelo 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

ABC may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ceará is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:8. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 1.7:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Ceará - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	São Bernardo - Ceará	0:1 penalties ✺
12.03.26	Maranhão - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
08.03.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:2 penalties ✺
01.03.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWWLT
- ABC FC
Brazilian Campeonato Potiguar
21.03.26	ABC - América RN	1:2 penalties ✺
18.03.26	América RN - ABC	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	ABC - QFC	3:1 ✺
08.03.26	QFC - ABC	1:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Madureira - ABC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
28.02.24	Ceará - ABC	2:2
Brazilian Serie B
06.08.23	Ceará - ABC	1:0
30.04.23	ABC - Ceará	1:2
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
01.03.21	ABC - Ceará	1:1
08.02.20	ABC - Ceará	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
25.11.17	Ceará - ABC	1:0
05.08.17	ABC - Ceará	0:1

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