Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa do Nordeste - Round 5

Date: 6 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ceará		América RN

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.5	8.5
	1.23	5.5	11
	1.38	4.1	7.4
	1.3	4.72	10.35
	1.39	4.13	7.85
	1.22	5	12
	1.29	5.59	8.64	Watch
	1.38	4.1	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.52)	4.83 ↑ (3.9)	9.14 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
70.7%

Draw
19.1%

América RN
10.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

23.4%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

22%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceará's performance.

América RN has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and América RN might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceará that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América RN than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that América RN could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Ceará - América RN Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 11. Aylon 33. Eder 70. Fabiano 88. Fernando Sobral 97. Lourenco (C) 10. Lucas Mugni 79. Matheus Bahia 7. Pedro Henrique 9. Pedro Raul 40. Ramon Menezes	13. Gabriel Bernard (G) 6. Antonio 11. Giva 36. Iran 22. Lucas Rodrigues 28. Marquinhos 29. Mikael (C) 31. Rennan Siqueira 2. Ricardo Luz 17. Romarinho 10. Thiaguinho
Substitutes
20. Diego 77. Fernandinho 16. Fernando Miguel (G) 27. Galeano A. 80. Guilherme Luiz 44. Marcos Victor 3. Marllon 22. Martinez A. 8. Matheus Araujo 30. Nicolas 19. Romulo 23. Willian Machado	30. Davi Gabriel 33. Ferreira 4. Guilherme Paraiba 27. Hebert 37. Italo M. 32. Lucas Mendes 7. Luidy 1. Renan Braganca (G) 9. Ricardo Bueno 25. Robson Lopes 8. Souza 26. Thailor

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Pedro Raul 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Pedro Raul ⚽,
31', Ramon Menezes 🟨,
33', Ricardo Luz 🟨,
35', Rennan Siqueira 🟨,
36', 🟨,
45+5', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Romarinho ↓, Hebert ↑,
64', Giva ↓, Thailor ↑,
64', Fernando Sobral ↓, Diego ↑,
64', Aylon ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
76', Marquinhos ↓, Souza ↑,
76', Mikael ↓, Robson Lopes ↑,
79', Thiaguinho ↓, Davi Gabriel ↑,
83', Pedro Raul ↓, Guilherme Luiz ↑,
83', Lourenco ↓, Romulo ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 5 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 3.

Ceará in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches América RN is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

América RN could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ceará is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Ceará to win the game is with odds 1.4.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Ceará won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:4 (average 1.6:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12:1 (average 3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
02.03.25	Maracanã - Ceará	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
19.02.25	Sergipe - Ceará	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
12.02.25	Ceará - Confiança	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
08.02.25	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.02.25	Ceará - CS Alagoano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWTWW
- América RN
Copa do Brasil
26.02.25	União Carmolandense - América RN	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
18.02.25	América RN - Confiança	2:1 ✺
12.02.25	Bahia - América RN	5:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Potiguar
08.02.25	América RN - Santa Cruz de Natal	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.02.25	Sampaio Corrêa - América RN	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.09.14	Ceará - América RN	2:0
20.05.14	América RN - Ceará	0:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.03.14	América RN - Ceará	2:0
12.03.14	Ceará - América RN	4:0
Brazilian Serie B
26.10.13	América RN - Ceará	1:0
06.08.13	Ceará - América RN	2:1
13.10.12	Ceará - América RN	4:0

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