Match Info

Primera Premier - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)


	Celaya		Montañeses

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.23	3.07
	2.11	3.37	3.17	Watch
	2.07	3.15	3
	1.98	3.4	3.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.81)	3.29 ↓ (3.55)	3.12 ↓ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celaya
43.6%

Draw
27.4%

Montañeses
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

25.4%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Celaya's form might have worsened.

Montañeses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Celaya - Montañeses Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

(0 - 1)

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 2nd in the Promotion ~ Primera Premier Playoffs and 6th).

Montañeses may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Celaya for this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Celaya has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:5 (averaging 1:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Celaya against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals.

Last Results with these Odds

Celaya - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 49.79%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Primera Premier
11.09.26	Chapulineros de Oaxaca - Celaya	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Celaya - Tapachula Soconusco	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Pioneros de Cancún - Celaya	0:3 ✺
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
25.04.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Celaya	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Celaya - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWWLW
- Montañeses FC
Mexican Primera Premier
13.09.26	Montañeses - Racing de Veracruz	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Jaguares de Chiapas - Montañeses	2:3 penalties ✺
30.08.26	Montañeses - Deportiva Venados	1:1 ✺
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
29.03.26	Montañeses - Celaya	5:1 ✺
21.03.26	Chapulineros de Oaxaca - Montañeses	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
29.03.26	Montañeses - Celaya	5:1
15.11.25	Celaya - Montañeses	1:0

Celaya - Montañeses: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide