Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Reserves - Play Offs - Final

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya) 🌤️ ...


	Celaya		Cimarrones de Sonora

	1	X	2
	2.27	3.25	3.07
	2.28	3.14	3.04	Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.8
	2.25	3.02	3.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.18)	3.13 ↓ (3.36)	3 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celaya
40.3%

Draw
29.2%

Cimarrones de Sonora
30.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.2%

27.4%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

27.3%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Cimarrones de Sonora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cimarrones de Sonora than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Celaya - Cimarrones de Sonora Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+4', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Celaya won 2.

Celaya has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cimarrones de Sonora is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Celaya is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Celaya won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Celaya won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:11. (average 1.8:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
18.04.26	Leones Negros 2 - Celaya	1:2 ✺
15.04.26	Celaya - Leones Negros 2	5:0 ✺
29.03.26	Montañeses - Celaya	5:1 ✺
21.03.26	Celaya - Inter Playa Del Carmen	0:0 ✺
13.03.26	Héroes de Zaci - Celaya	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLTL
- Cimarrones de Sonora
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
18.04.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Mineros de Fresnillo	1:1 ✺
15.04.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:1 ✺
27.03.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	La Piedad - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:3 ✺
13.03.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Colima	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
24.03.24	Cimarrones de Sonora - Celaya	0:1
05.09.23	Celaya - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:1
21.03.23	Cimarrones de Sonora - Celaya	1:1
05.11.22	Celaya - Cimarrones de Sonora	3:1
02.11.22	Cimarrones de Sonora - Celaya	0:0
24.08.22	Celaya - Cimarrones de Sonora	3:1
08.05.22	Celaya - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:1

Celaya - Cimarrones de Sonora