Match Info

LaLiga - Round 4

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio de Balaídos (Vigo)

Referee: Cordero A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
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Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
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Uruguay	DSports 1
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DSports 1
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Celta de Vigo		Girona

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	5	Watch
	1.66	3.9	4.8
	1.65	4.15	4.95	Watch
	1.69	4.3	4.95
	3.91	3.13	2.05	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.6
	1.67	4.2	5.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.66)	3.9 ↓ (4.11)	4.56 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celta de Vigo
51.3%

Draw
26.3%

Girona
22.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.6%

23.3%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

22.9%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celta de Vigo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Celta de Vigo's form might have worsened.

Girona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Celta de Vigo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Girona than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78%	11.9%	10.2%

Celta de Vigo - Girona Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Girona (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Celta (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Celta de Vigo will win (46 of 58 users predict this - 79.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.88% – 89.74%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Celta de Vigo will win (16 of 21 users predict this - 76.19%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Girona (votes: 3 - 13%). Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 24. Dominguez C. 12. Fernandez M. 5. Carreira S. 22. Sotelo H. 6. Moriba I. 3. Mingueza O. 10. Aspas I. (C) 9. Jutgla F. 18. Duran P.	13. Gazzaniga P. (G) 4. Martinez A. (C) 12. Vitor Reis 17. Blind D. 24. Moreno A. 20. Witsel A. 23. Martin I. 18. Ounahi A. 10. Asprilla Y. 19. Vanat V. 3. Roca J.
Substitutes
20. Alonso M. 23. Alvarez H. 8. Beltran F. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 7. Iglesias B. 21. Ristic M. 16. Roman M. 17. Rueda J. 2. Starfelt C. 19. Swedberg W. 1. Villar I. (G) 15. Zaragoza B.	16. Frances A. 21. Gil B. 25. Krapyvtsov V. (G) 40. Livakovic D. (G) 8. Portu 2. Rincon H. 9. Ruiz A. 22. Solis Romero J. E. 7. Stuani C. 6. van de Beek D.
Coaches
Giraldez C.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Vanat V. ⚽, Martin I. (A),
26', Ounahi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Roca J. ↓, Portu ↑,
59', Jutgla F. ↓, Iglesias B. ↑,
60', Duran P. ↓, Zaragoza B. ↑,
67', Vanat V. ↓, Gil B. ↑,
67', Martinez A. ↓, Frances A. ↑,
70', Aspas I. ↓, Alvarez H. ↑,
70', Rodriguez J. ↓, Starfelt C. ↑,
80', Frances A. 🟨,
80', Carreira S. ↓, Rueda J. ↑,
82', Martin I. ↓, Solis Romero J. E. ↑,
82', Ounahi A. ↓, van de Beek D. ↑,
90+1', Michel 🟨,
90+1', Portu 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 1, Iglesias B. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Celta won 0.

Celta has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Girona is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Girona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Celta is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Celta: Aidoo J. (Coach's decision) Alonso M. (Knee Injury) Cervi F. (Coach's decision) Starfelt C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Girona: Artero R. (Ankle Injury) Juan Carlos (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Girona: Gil B. (Knee Injury) Ruiz A. (Thigh Injury) Tsygankov V. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Celta won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Celta won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
31.08.25	Celta de Vigo - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
27.08.25	Celta de Vigo - Betis	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Mallorca - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Celta de Vigo - Getafe	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Celta de Vigo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTTLW
- Girona FC
Spanish LaLiga
30.08.25	Girona - Sevilla	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Villarreal - Girona	5:0 ✺
15.08.25	Girona - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Napoli - Girona	3:2 ✺
03.08.25	Girona - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
01.03.25	Girona - Celta de Vigo	2:2
29.09.24	Celta de Vigo - Girona	1:1
28.01.24	Celta de Vigo - Girona	0:1
27.10.23	Girona - Celta de Vigo	1:0
23.05.23	Celta de Vigo - Girona	1:1
26.08.22	Girona - Celta de Vigo	0:1
20.04.19	Celta de Vigo - Girona	2:1

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