Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Referee: Gonzalez L. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cerro		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	6.5	3.6	1.48	Watch
	5.75	3.80	1.51
	6.1	3.7	1.49
	7.55	4.09	1.49
	6.49	3.87	1.53	Watch
	7.3	4	1.47
	6.63	3.58	1.48	Watch
	6.2	3.85	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.57 ↑ (6.4)	3.81 ↑ (3.65)	1.5 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro
14.1%

Draw
24.2%

Peñarol de Montevideo
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.2%

24.9%

60.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.9%

24.4%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Irrazabal Y. (G) 19. Sosa E. 16. Guasone J. 21. Arena N. 17. Rodriguez G. 5. Macelli A. (C) 31. Amaro J. 10. Aleman B. 27. Barros C. 14. Rodriguez E. 70. Leonardo Pais	29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Pezzella G. 3. Lemos M. 15. Olivera M. (C) 7. Cabrera J. 5. Remedi E. 8. Fernandez N. 26. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 11. Jaime C. 32. Umpierrez L. 19. Arezo M.
Substitutes
1. Denis D. (G) 11. Forclaz E. 3. Lima A. 32. Mederos R. 8. Miranda A. 9. Morales B. 13. Quinteros B. 33. Rijo T. 7. Severo A. 20. Villar M.	28. Alegre I. 36. Barboza B. 1. Britos S. (G) 80. Gonzalez F. 99. Hernandez A. 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 16. Olase T. 33. Rodriguez J. 4. Romero F.
Coaches
Cappuccio A.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Arezo M. ⚽, Cabrera J. (A),
26', 1 - 1, Rodriguez E. ⚽, Leonardo Pais (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lemos M. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
63', Fernandez N. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
63', Espinosa Dovat T. N. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
65', Rodriguez E. 🟨,
66', Aleman B. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
66', Leonardo Pais ↓, Villar M. ↑,
77', 1 - 2, Jaime C. ⚽,
79', Arena N. 🟨,
80', Sosa E. ↓, Severo A. ↑,
80', Arena N. ↓, Morales B. ↑,
80', Cabrera J. ↓, Alegre I. ↑,
80', Jaime C. ↓, Olase T. ↑,
86', Hernandez A. 🟨,
90+1', Barros C. 🟨,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 3rd and 5th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 1.

In recent outings, Cerro has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Peñarol shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Peñarol could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Peñarol holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Cerro has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 14 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:41 (averaging 0.8:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cerro against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with 5:21 goals (averaging 0.6:2.3 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 60.94%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.09.26	Progreso - Cerro	1:3 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.26	Cerro - Cerrito	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.26	Cerro - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
01.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.08.26	Boston River - Cerro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WLWTT
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.09.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:4 ✺
Uruguay Copa
02.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
26.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
07.06.26	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
21.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	3:1
25.10.25	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0
28.06.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	2:0
27.04.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	Abandoned
22.09.24	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:5
09.03.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	3:0

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