Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 27

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ceuta		Antequera

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	4.75
	1.72	3.25	4.33
	1.72	3.45	4.8
	1.74	3.35	5.71
	1.71	3.26	5.08
	1.71	3.56	4.61
	1.72	3.45	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (2.09)	3.37 ↑ (2.95)	4.87 ↑ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
53.8%

Draw
27.3%

Antequera
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

31.2%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

30.4%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceuta's performance.

Antequera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Antequera might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceuta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Antequera than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Antequera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ceuta - Antequera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopez P. (G) 7. Ahmed A. 4. Caparros A. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 20. Escudero A. 8. Zalazar K. 3. Youness 19. Jamelli 22. Kone K. 11. Aquino D.	13. Lario J. (G) 12. Fomeyem F. 4. Perez I. 23. Luengo Herrera L. M. 3. Carrion J. 21. Biabiany J. 10. Nunez C. 8. Clavijo D. 7. Luismi Gutierrez 17. Roige Rodriguez P. 16. Elejalde I.
Substitutes
28. Aniekan B. 5. Bellotti M. 15. Guzman J. 21. Lopez J. 30. Montano A. 9. Rodri 10. Rodriguez C. 13. Vallejo G. (G)	30. Alcover D. (G) 19. Fernandez X. 26. Gonzalez I. 22. Jaime G. 9. Longo S. 15. Moreno A. 1. Moreno I. (G) 2. Rodriguez I. 14. Rubio A. 11. Siddiki O. 6. Toni Arranz 29. Topo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Aquino D. ⚽, Zalazar K. (A),
15', Fomeyem F. 🟨,
33', 1 - 1, Cantero Y. (Own goal),
37', 2 - 1, Kone K. ⚽, Aquino D. (A),
42', Clavijo D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Siddiki O. 🟨,
66', Kone K. 🟥,
67', Zalazar K. 🟨,
70', Luengo Herrera L. M. 🟨,
71', 2 - 2, Carrion J. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Ceuta in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Antequera is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Antequera could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ceuta is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Ceuta to win the game is with odds 1.74.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceuta won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:5 (average 1.2:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceuta won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0 (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
02.03.25	Villarreal B - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Ceuta - Betis B	5:1 ✺
14.02.25	Alcorcón - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Ceuta - Algeciras	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Ceuta - Atlético Madrid B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWTWW
- Antequera CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
01.03.25	Antequera - Atlético Madrid B	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Recreativo Huelva - Antequera	0:0 ✺
16.02.25	Antequera - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Ibiza - Antequera	5:3 ✺
01.02.25	Antequera - Fuenlabrada	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.12.24	Antequera - Ceuta	2:2
05.05.24	Ceuta - Antequera	2:0
03.01.24	Antequera - Ceuta	0:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
24.04.22	Antequera - Ceuta	3:1
05.12.21	Ceuta - Antequera	1:0

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