Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 23

Date: 9 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ceuta		Algeciras

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.4	4.8
	1.67	3.61	5.66
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (2.04)	3.51 ↑ (3)	5.23 ↑ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
56.1%

Draw
26.3%

Algeciras
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

30.1%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

29.1%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceuta's performance.

Algeciras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Algeciras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceuta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Algeciras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ceuta - Algeciras Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopez P. (G) 23. Almenara G. 6. Hernandez C. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 20. Escudero A. 10. Rodriguez C. 3. Youness 5. Bellotti M. 11. Aquino D. 22. Kone K.	13. Garcia L. (G) 20. Adot Barandiaran P. A. 4. Spatz L. M. 5. Gaixas A. 11. Sanchez T. 3. Merchan D. 21. Celorio N. 19. Illesca M. 14. Javi Alonso 9. Gonzaga Delage Cruzado L. 10. Esteban Diego
Substitutes
7. Ahmed A. 28. Aniekan B. 4. Caparros A. 15. Guzman J. 19. Jamelli 21. Lopez J. 9. Rodri 13. Vallejo G. (G) 12. Zalazar K.	31. Dominiguez C. 23. Gomez J. 18. Hernandez Garcia J. 17. Leiva A. 27. Recagno D. 7. Rodri 1. Venteo I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Esteban Diego 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', 1 - 0, Kone K. ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 0, Rodri ⚽,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceuta won 2.

Ceuta is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Algeciras is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Algeciras could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ceuta is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Ceuta to win the game is with odds 1.72.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Ceuta won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9:12 (average 1.1:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceuta won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
02.02.25	Ceuta - Atlético Madrid B	2:1 ✺
25.01.25	Recreativo Huelva - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
18.01.25	Ceuta - Sevilla B	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
22.12.24	Ceuta - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTWTW
- Algeciras CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
31.01.25	Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla	1:4 ✺
26.01.25	Sevilla B - Algeciras	1:0 ✺
19.01.25	Algeciras - Intercity	1:0 ✺
11.01.25	Atlético Madrid B - Algeciras	1:1 ✺
21.12.24	Algeciras - Antequera	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
19.10.24	Algeciras - Ceuta	2:0
30.03.24	Ceuta - Algeciras	3:2
21.10.23	Algeciras - Ceuta	1:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.02.23	Algeciras - Ceuta	1:2
02.10.22	Ceuta - Algeciras	1:3
Club Friendly
22.09.20	Algeciras - Ceuta	3:1
18.08.19	Algeciras - Ceuta	0:1

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