Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 8

Date: 13 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ceuta		Intercity

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.6	4.5
	1.62	3.5	4.6
	1.69	3.65	4.7
	1.69	3.65	5.58
	1.71	3.37	4.86	Watch
	1.67	3.5	5.05
	1.69	3.65	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (2.11)	3.56 ↑ (3.03)	4.86 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
55.2%

Draw
25.9%

Intercity
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

30.4%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29.9%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceuta's performance.

Intercity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Intercity might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceuta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Intercity than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Intercity could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ceuta - Intercity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vallejo G. (G) 7. Ahmed A. 25. Cantero Y. 6. Hernandez C. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 20. Escudero A. 8. Ramos D. 5. Bellotti M. 19. Jamelli 22. Aguero 9. Rodri	13. Casado S. (G) 2. San Emeterio B. 4. Hernandez A. 20. Codina M. 17. Jimenez E. 18. Burlamaqui A. 5. Llonch P. 11. Roige Rodriguez P. (C) 24. Gil A. 23. Gonzalez N. 19. De Santis J.
Substitutes
11. Aquino D. 14. Blesa Alex 18. El Ftouhi S. 15. Guzman J. 12. Herranz Corral V. 3. Lolo Gonzalez 21. Lopez J. 1. Lopez P. (G) . Lozano D. . Peri 10. Rodriguez C. 17. Taufek B. M.	14. Elady 1. Freixanet P. (G) 6. Gracia J. 3. Mendibe M. 22. Montero Sergio 8. Nsue E. 21. Sito 7. Zequi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Ramos D. 🟨,
20', Llonch P. 🟨,
25', Burlamaqui A. 🟨,
30', Rodri 🟨,
45+4', Rodri 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Jamelli ↓, El Ftouhi S. ↑,
49', Burlamaqui A. ↓, Gracia J. ↑,
54', Hernandez A. 🟨,
57', 0 - 1, Llonch P. ⚽,
60', Codina M. 🟨,
61', De Santis J. ↓, Montero Sergio ↑,
61', Llonch P. ↓, Nsue E. ↑,
64', Ramos D. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
64', Escudero A. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
64', Aguero ↓, Taufek B. M. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Nsue E. ⚽,
73', Roige Rodriguez P. ↓, Sito ↑,
79', Bellotti M. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
85', Gonzalez N. ↓, Mendibe M. ↑,
90+2', Hernandez C. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 and 14).

Ceuta is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Intercity is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Ceuta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ceuta is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ceuta won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 2:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceuta won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
06.10.24	Atlético Madrid B - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
28.09.24	Ceuta - Recreativo Huelva	1:0 ✺
22.09.24	Betis B - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
15.09.24	Ceuta - Atlético Sanluqueño	2:2 ✺
08.09.24	Marbella - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWTTW
- CF Intercity
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
05.10.24	Intercity - Yeclano Deportivo	1:1 ✺
29.09.24	Antequera - Intercity	1:1 ✺
22.09.24	Intercity - Algeciras	0:1 ✺
15.09.24	Intercity - Alcoyano	0:2 ✺
07.09.24	Hércules - Intercity	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.03.24	Ceuta - Intercity	2:1
10.12.23	Intercity - Ceuta	3:2

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