Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 2

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Referee: Fuentes A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Dsports 9
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 9
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports, DSports 9
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 3, Orange Futbol 2
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports


	Ceuta		Sporting de Gijón

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.75	2.9	Watch
	2.6	2.95	2.65
	2.72	2.88	2.72	Watch
	2.79	3.05	2.98
	6.08	3.85	1.56	Watch
	2.67	3.22	2.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (2.15)	3.12 ↓ (3.28)	2.59 ↓ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
30.1%

Draw
31.7%

Sporting de Gijón
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

28.5%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

30.2%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ceuta's form might have worsened.

Sporting de Gijón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting de Gijón's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+16%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceuta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting de Gijón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	54.5%	36.4%

Ceuta - Sporting de Gijón Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Ceuta will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Sporting de Gijón will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceuta (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Sporting de Gijón (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Sporting de Gijón (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Sporting de Gijón (1.90) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Sporting de Gijón (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceuta (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Sporting de Gijón (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopez P. (G) 17. Almenara G. 6. Hernandez C. 15. Gonzalez D. 3. Matos Jose 8. Zalazar K. 5. Youness 14. Bodiger Y. 7. Ahmed A. 11. Ortuno J. 23. Anuar	1. Yanez R. (G) 2. Rosas G. 15. Vazquez P. 4. Perrin L. 5. Sanchez D. 14. Corredera A. 6. Martin N. 17. Dubasin J. 10. Gelabert Pina C. 7. Campos G. 19. Otero J.
Substitutes
26. Bassinga A. 24. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 20. Escudero A. 19. Jamelli 30. Josema 16. Redruello Nimo C. 10. Rodriguez C. 27. Ugiagbe E. 13. Vallejo G. (G) 21. Vallejo M.	9. Caicedo J. 18. Coundoul A. 23. Curbelo E. 3. Garcia P. 13. Joel C. (G) 22. Kembo Y. 34. Mancha J. 28. Mbemba P. 32. Prendes E. O. 11. Queipo D. 24. Smith J. 30. Venteo I. (G)
Coaches
Romero J.	Garitano A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Gelabert Pina C. ⚽, Otero J. (A),
37', Ortuno J. 🟨,
45', Martin N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Bodiger Y. ↓, Ugiagbe E. ↑,
65', Campos G. ↓, Curbelo E. ↑,
74', Martin N. ↓, Smith J. ↑,
74', Gelabert Pina C. ↓, Mbemba P. ↑,
78', Zalazar K. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
84', Ahmed A. ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
84', Youness ↓, Vallejo M. ↑,
88', Corredera A. ↓, Prendes E. O. ↑,
88', Otero J. ↓, Coundoul A. ↑,
89', Coundoul A. 🟨,

Preview

Ceuta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sporting de Gijón is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sporting de Gijón may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sporting de Gijón has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Ceuta: Sanchez M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Sporting de Gijón: Bernal J. (Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
15.08.25	Valladolid - Ceuta	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
05.08.25	Ceuta - Sevilla B	3:0 ✺
02.08.25	Cádiz - Ceuta	0:3 ✺
26.07.25	Al-Wakrah - Ceuta	1:4 ✺
19.07.25	Ceuta - Juventud de Torremolinos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWWL
- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
18.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Córdoba	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Ferrol	3:0 ✺
10.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Arenteiro	4:0 ✺
06.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Leonesa	3:2 ✺
30.07.25	Real Avilés - Sporting de Gijón	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWWW

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