Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 10 - Round 14

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday


	Ceuta B		Tomares

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.3	4.5
	2	2.98	3.65
	1.81	3.05	4.82
	1.88	3.17	4.17
	2.05	2.9	3.5
	2.06	2.91	3.67
	2.08	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.75)	3.04 ↓ (3.3)	3.97 ↓ (4.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta B
47.1%

Draw
30%

Tomares
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

27.5%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

27%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Tomares has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta B than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceuta B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomares than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Ceuta B - Tomares Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, ⚽,
41', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', 2 - 1, Vega R. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Ceuta B has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tomares's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ceuta B may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ceuta B is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ceuta B won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Tomares UD	5	2	2	1	6:5	1	8
16	Ceuta B	5	1	1	3	3:10	-7	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceuta B
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
03.01.26	Castilleja - Ceuta B	3:1 ✺
20.12.25	Ceuta B - Coria CF	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Córdoba B - Ceuta B	3:0 ✺
22.11.25	Ceuta B - Chiclana	3:1 ✺
15.11.25	Conil - Ceuta B	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLWW
- UD Tomares
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
04.01.26	Tomares - Coria CF	5:0 ✺
20.12.25	Tomares - Ciudad de Lucena	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Tomares - Bollullos	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Córdoba B - Tomares	1:2 ✺
16.11.25	Tomares - Sevilla C	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
08.02.25	Tomares - Ceuta B	2:2
02.02.22	Tomares - Ceuta B	1:1

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