Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade du Pays de Charleroi (Charleroi)

Referee: Laforge N. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Charleroi		Saint-Gilloise

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.40	1.85	Watch
	3.80	3.60	1.90
	3.85	3.45	1.90	Watch
	3.98	3.73	1.98
	3.54	3.59	2.03
	3.95	3.60	1.93
	4.22	3.63	1.93	Watch
	3.85	3.55	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↑ (3.58)	3.57 ↑ (3.48)	1.93 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Charleroi
24.5%

Draw
26.5%

Saint-Gilloise
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

26.9%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

27.5%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Charleroi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Saint-Gilloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Charleroi than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	18.2%	72.7%

Charleroi - Saint Gilloise Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Charleroi will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Union SG will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union SG: 46.4% – 99%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Kone M. (G) 3. Van Den Kerkhof K. 4. Ousou A. (C) 95. Keita C. 24. Nzita M. 6. Boukamir A. 18. Khalifi Y. 14. Pflucke P. 8. Romsaas J. 20. Mbemba F. 21. Scheidler A.	12. Koffi H. (G) 5. Mac Allister K. (C) 29. Sylla M. 80. Kricfalusi O. 27. Patris L. 6. Van De Perre K. 8. Zorgane A. 11. Guilherme Smith 23. Zeneli B. 30. Florucz R. 9. Biondic M.
Substitutes
9. Bojang A. 19. Cisse I. 25. Colassin A. 1. Delavallee M. (G) 51. Kera M. 13. Nawata G. 2. Rowe T. 33. Solheid N. 44. Sow M.	20. Aquino D. 1. Chambaere V. (G) 21. De Roeve D. 55. Havenaar N. 25. Hurtevent I. 38. Mofokeng R. 28. Olaru D. 14. Pavlic I. 17. Schoofs R.
Coaches
Kohnen M.	Hubert D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
7', Kricfalusi O. 🟨,
9', Nzita M. 🟨,
12', 0 - 1, Kone M. (Own goal),
27', 1 - 1, Mbemba F. ⚽, Van Den Kerkhof K. (A),
41', 2 - 1, Pflucke P. ⚽, Romsaas J. (A),
44', 2 - 2, Zorgane A. ⚽,
45+2', Patris L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 2 - 3, Van De Perre K. ⚽, Zeneli B. (A),
64', Mbemba F. ↓, Colassin A. ↑,
64', Boukamir A. ↓, Rowe T. ↑,
72', Florucz R. ↓, Olaru D. ↑,
72', Patris L. ↓, De Roeve D. ↑,
72', Pflucke P. ↓, Bojang A. ↑,
80', Biondic M. ↓, Hurtevent I. ↑,
80', Zeneli B. ↓, Havenaar N. ↑,
84', Zorgane A. ↓, Schoofs R. ↑,
86', Nzita M. ↓, Nawata G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Charleroi won 0.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Union SG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Union SG will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Union SG: Chibani N. (Inactive) Sykes R. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Union SG: Hurtevent I. (Injury) Rodriguez K. (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Charleroi won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 8:28. (average 0.6:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Charleroi won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.5:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Royale Union SG	7	6	1	0	21:3	18	19
4	Charleroi	7	6	0	1	15:7	8	18

Last Results with these Odds

Charleroi - the odds 3.58 are the expected chance of winning is 26.18%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Saint-Gilloise - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.9%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Charleroi
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
29.08.26	Kortrijk - Charleroi	1:3 ✺
22.08.26	Charleroi - KV Mechelen	2:0 ✺
16.08.26	Lommel - Charleroi	0:1 ✺
09.08.26	Charleroi - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Charleroi - Rayo Vallecano	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWWL
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
02.09.26	Sint-Truidense - Saint-Gilloise	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	Saint-Gilloise - Anderlecht	3:0 ✺
15.08.26	Saint-Gilloise - Zulte Waregem	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Bodø Glimt - Saint-Gilloise	3:2 AET ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
08.08.26	Westerlo - Saint-Gilloise	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Cup
11.02.26	Saint-Gilloise - Charleroi	4:1
04.02.26	Charleroi - Saint-Gilloise	0:0
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
14.12.25	Charleroi - Saint-Gilloise	1:1
18.10.25	Saint-Gilloise - Charleroi	3:1
11.01.25	Charleroi - Saint-Gilloise	1:2
16.08.24	Saint-Gilloise - Charleroi	1:0
10.12.23	Charleroi - Saint-Gilloise	1:3

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