Match Info

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 1 - Round 24

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday


	Chayka 2		Zarya

	1	X	2
	4.63	3.25	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.63 ↑ (3.25)	3.25 ↑ (3)	1.71 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 10.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chayka 2
19.5%

Draw
27.8%

Zarya
52.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

30.5%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

29.4%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chayka 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chayka 2's form might have worsened.

Zarya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zarya's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chayka 2 than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chayka 2, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zarya than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zarya, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
9', 0 - 1, Oznobichin O. ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, Terekhov A. ⚽,
29', 1 - 2, Zakharov M. ⚽,
33', 1 - 3, Zakharov M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
85', 1 - 4, Titarenko V. ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 5, ⚽,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 14th and 10th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Zarya carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Chayka 2 has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Lugansk	24	8	6	10	34:33	1	30
14	FK Chayka 2	25	5	2	18	23:57	-34	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chayka Peschanokopskoye 2
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 1
12.09.26	Shakhtyor Taganrog - Chayka 2	4:2 ✺
05.09.26	Chayka 2 - Rostov 2	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Chayka 2 - Neftyanik Izberbash	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Dynamo Makhachkala 2 - Chayka 2	0:3 ✺
15.08.26	Chayka 2 - Druzhba Maykop	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 LLWWT
- Zarya Rostov
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 1
12.09.26	Rostov 2 - Zarya	0:5 ✺
05.09.26	Zarya - Shakhtyor Taganrog	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Zarya - Astrakhan	4:0 ✺
22.08.26	Pobeda Khasavyurt - Zarya	3:0 ✺
16.08.26	Zarya - Spartak Nalchik	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 1
08.05.26	Zarya - Chayka 2	3:2

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