Match Info

National League South - Round 7

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Melbourne Stadium (Chelmsford)


	Chelmsford City		Salisbury

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.70	4.00
	1.62	3.70	4.40
	1.78	3.89	4.13
	1.73	3.89	4.3	Watch
	1.75	3.80	4.05
	1.81	3.77	3.98
	1.71	3.70	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.68)	3.78 ↑ (3.77)	4.14 ↓ (4.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
53.4%

Draw
24.4%

Salisbury
22.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.6%

24.2%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

23.9%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Salisbury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salisbury than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Chelmsford City - Salisbury Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Gallagher R. ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, Alexander G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Chelmsford is considered a favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelmsford won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.8:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Salisbury	11	6	3	2	20:8	12	21
15	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14:8	6	14

Outrights of English National League South for now

Chelmsford: 6.18% Salisbury: 4.95%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English National League South
31.08.26	Weston-super-Mare - Chelmsford City	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Chelmsford City - Maidenhead United	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Folkestone Invicta - Chelmsford City	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Chelmsford City - Truro City	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
28.07.26	Dartford - Chelmsford City	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWTT?
- Salisbury FC
English National League South
31.08.26	Salisbury - Billericay Town	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Maidstone United - Salisbury	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Salisbury - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Horsham - Salisbury	0:0 ✺
08.08.26	Salisbury - Hampton & Richmond Borough	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
21.02.26	Chelmsford City - Salisbury	2:2
22.11.25	Salisbury - Chelmsford City	3:0
15.02.25	Salisbury - Chelmsford City	1:3
26.10.24	Chelmsford City - Salisbury	2:1
English FA Trophy
11.01.20	Chelmsford City - Salisbury	4:0
English National League South
04.05.13	Salisbury - Chelmsford City	2:0
30.04.13	Chelmsford City - Salisbury	1:0

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