Match Info

National League South - Round 13

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Chelmsford City		Tonbridge Angels

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.50	3.20
	1.98	3.55	3.2
	1.97	3.71	3.57
	1.96	3.72	3.45	Watch
	1.94	3.6	3.5
	1.83	3.58	3.56
	1.94	3.55	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.75)	3.6 (3.6)	3.37 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
47.4%

Draw
25.4%

Tonbridge Angels
27.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.2%

24.9%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

24.2%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Tonbridge Angels has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelmsford City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tonbridge Angels than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Chelmsford City - Tonbridge Angels Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Taylor L. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
49', 2 - 0, Barbrook H. ⚽,
75', 2 - 1, Pavey A. ⚽,
78', 2 - 2, Tanga J. ⚽,
86', 3 - 2, Sery L. ⚽,
88', 3 - 3, Thompson J. ⚽,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 15th and 6th in the Promotion - National League South Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Recently, Chelmsford has faced a series of away games on the road.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Chelmsford holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Chelmsford has recorded 9 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 33:17 (averaging 1.8:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Chelmsford against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 19:7 goals (averaging 2.1:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Tonbridge	14	7	3	4	26:14	12	24
13	Chelmsford	12	3	9	0	18:11	7	18

Outrights of English National League South for now

Chelmsford: 4.98% Tonbridge: 3.56%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English FA Cup
17.10.26	Wimborne Town - Chelmsford City	1:0 ✺
English National League South
10.10.26	Chesham United - Chelmsford City	0:5 ✺
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Brackley Town - Chelmsford City	0:2 ✺
English National League South
26.09.26	Chelmsford City - Horsham	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Chelmsford City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWTT
- Tonbridge Angels
English National League South
17.10.26	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0 ✺
10.10.26	Maidenhead United - Tonbridge Angels	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Tonbridge Angels - Torquay United	0:1 ✺
English National League South
26.09.26	Tonbridge Angels - Ebbsfleet United	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
26.01.26	Chelmsford City - Tonbridge Angels	1:0
04.11.25	Tonbridge Angels - Chelmsford City	2:4
22.03.25	Tonbridge Angels - Chelmsford City	2:1
19.08.24	Chelmsford City - Tonbridge Angels	1:1
13.04.24	Chelmsford City - Tonbridge Angels	3:0
04.11.23	Tonbridge Angels - Chelmsford City	1:1
20.02.23	Chelmsford City - Tonbridge Angels	1:0

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