Match Info

National League South - Round 41

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Salisbury		Dover Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.95	4.65
	1.59	4.24	4.99
	1.6	4.27	4.76	Watch
	1.62	3.9	4.6
	1.66	3.94	4.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (2.18)	4.06 ↑ (3.4)	4.73 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salisbury
57.5%

Draw
22.9%

Dover Athletic
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

27.3%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

26.7%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salisbury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Salisbury's performance.

Dover Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dover Athletic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salisbury than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Salisbury that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dover Athletic than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dover Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Salisbury - Dover Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
28', 1 - 0, Willard T. ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, Sheriff D. ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 1, Jolliffe M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 19 and 17)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Salisbury won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Salisbury may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Salisbury is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Salisbury won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Salisbury won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Salisbury: 4.6%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Salisbury	10	5	3	2	18:7	11	18
8	Dover	10	5	2	3	17:16	1	17

Last Results with these Odds

Dover Athletic - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 30.06%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Salisbury FC
English National League South
21.03.26	Salisbury - Enfield Town	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Slough Town - Salisbury	3:3 ✺
10.03.26	Torquay United - Salisbury	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Salisbury - Eastbourne Borough	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Hornchurch - Salisbury	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTLWL
- Dover Athletic
English National League South
24.03.26	Enfield Town - Dover Athletic	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Chelmsford City - Dover Athletic	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Dover Athletic - Chippenham Town	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Dover Athletic - Tonbridge Angels	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Dover Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
23.08.25	Dover Athletic - Salisbury	2:0
12.05.13	Salisbury - Dover Athletic	3:2 OT
09.04.13	Salisbury - Dover Athletic	1:1
20.10.12	Dover Athletic - Salisbury	1:3
03.03.12	Salisbury - Dover Athletic	N/A

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