Match Info

FNL - Round 34

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Centralnyy (Novorossiysk)

Referee: Abrosimov I. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Sochi

	1	X	2
	2.11	3.33	3.53
	2.06	3.36	3.61	Watch
	1.9	2.9	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.52)	3.2 (3.2)	3.38 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
44.8%

Draw
28.4%

Sochi
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

30%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

30.8%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chernomorets Novorossiysk's performance.

Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sochi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chernomorets Novorossiysk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sochi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Sochi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chernomorets (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Soldatenko R. (G) 6. Tarba Z. 44. Chichinadze A. 5. Stezhko V. 4. Milic S. 64. Lanin O. 21. Ivanov E. 22. Gorelov P. 13. Akbashev R. 9. Guzina G. 10. Uridia M.	35. Degtev A. (G) 5. Maslov P. 15. Suslov K. 55. Stojsavljevic L. 17. Makarchuk A. 22. Kozhemyakin O. 72. Shagiakhmetov R. 28. Magal R. 8. Kaynov M. 29. Nikitin K. 80. Balkizov A.
Substitutes
7. Antonov A. 35. Enin I. 17. Fomin D. 1. Frolkin D. (G) 57. Krotov V. 88. Masternoy V. 32. Matyusha M. (G) 23. Nikiforov N. 69. Rodionov I. 8. Yusupov Z. 28. Zhilkin G.	24. Aberdin N. 10. Kramaric M. 4. Litvinov V. 20. Martovoy D. 97. Pasevich R. 77. Pisarskiy V. 1. Rudakov M. (G) 21. Saavedra I. 13. Terekhov S. 12. Zabolotnyi N. (G) 27. Zaika K.
Coaches
Vasilenko O.	Moreno R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, Maslov P. ⚽,
38', Milic S. 🟨,
42', 1 - 1, Gorelov P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tarba Z. ↓, Masternoy V. ↑,
46', Gorelov P. ↓, Fomin D. ↑,
57', Balkizov A. ↓, Pisarskiy V. ↑,
57', Shagiakhmetov R. ↓, Saavedra I. ↑,
57', Nikitin K. ↓, Martovoy D. ↑,
65', Uridia M. ↓, Antonov A. ↑,
71', Kaynov M. ↓, Pasevich R. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Antonov A. ⚽,
77', Guzina G. ↓, Krotov V. ↑,
86', Ivanov E. ↓, Yusupov Z. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 2.

Chernomorets is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sochi is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Chernomorets won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
19.05.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:2 ✺
10.05.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:0 ✺
03.05.25	Shinnik - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:2 ✺
27.04.25	Sokol Saratov - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:2 ✺
19.04.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - SKA Khabarovsk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTWWW
- FC Sochi
Russian FNL
17.05.25	Sochi - Torpedo Moscow	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Sochi	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Sochi - Arsenal Tula	5:1 ✺
26.04.25	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Sochi	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Sochi - Alania Vladikavkaz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
10.08.24	Sochi - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:1
Russian Cup
22.08.18	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Sochi	2:1
Russian PFL South
30.04.17	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Sochi	2:1
09.10.16	Sochi - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0
22.03.15	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Sochi	1:1
01.10.14	Sochi - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:3

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