Match Info

FNL - Round 3

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Fisht Olympic Stadium (Sochi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sochi		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.57	4.3
	1.85	3.5	4.25
	2.03	3.40	3.84	Watch
	1.87	3.2	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (1.93)	3.42 ↑ (3.26)	4.01 ↓ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sochi
49.2%

Draw
27.4%

Arsenal Tula
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

29.3%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

29.1%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Arsenal Tula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Sochi - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Degtev A. (G) 3. Soldatenkov A. 28. Magal R. 4. Litvinov V. 17. Makarchuk A. 5. Osipov A. 27. Zaika K. 33. Marcelo Alves 8. Ignatov M. 11. Meleshin P. 6. Kuzmin M.	42. Melikhov A. (G) 4. Penchikov D. 45. Karmaev N. 5. Krashevskiy Y. 24. Gotsuk K. 35. Enin I. 21. Razdorskikh N. 17. Gorbunov I. 9. Davidyan D. 77. Plotnikov D. 11. Magomedov R.
Substitutes
59. Bart R. 37. Chirkov M. 9. Fedorov Z. 13. Kalinin I. 18. Kaynov M. 39. Lantrat M. (G) 66. Metsiev A. 60. Nosatiy M. 97. Pasevich R. 85. Silev D. (G) 44. Stojic N.	82. Alekhin A. 25. Biryukov A. 14. Brnovic M. 19. Glushkov N. 44. Isaenko O. 23. Melekestsev T. 7. Reyes E. 8. Shramko D. 18. Tsulaya M. (G) 22. Uridia G. 75. Zhamaletdinov T. 10. Zhigulev I.
Coaches
Osinkin I.	Gunko D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Ignatov M. ⚽,
24', Zaika K. 🟨,
27', 2 - 0, Meleshin P. ⚽,
30', 3 - 0, Ignatov M. ⚽,
40', Osipov A. 🟨,
44', Krashevskiy Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Razdorskikh N. ↓, Shramko D. ↑,
46', Enin I. ↓, Brnovic M. ↑,
46', Plotnikov D. ↓, Reyes E. ↑,
53', Shramko D. 🟨,
56', 4 - 0, Ignatov M. ⚽,
60', Litvinov V. ↓, Bart R. ↑,
60', Zaika K. ↓, Kalinin I. ↑,
64', Davidyan D. 🟨,
65', Gorbunov I. ↓, Glushkov N. ↑,
68', Meleshin P. ↓, Fedorov Z. ↑,
69', Osipov A. ↓, Kaynov M. ↑,
77', Magomedov R. ↓, Melekestsev T. ↑,
77', Ignatov M. ↓, Stojic N. ↑,
82', 5 - 0, Fedorov Z. ⚽,
86', Krashevskiy Y. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, Sochi is a strong favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Sochi won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:12. (average 2.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sochi won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 15:6. (average 3:1.2).

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Arsenal Tula: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sochi	12	7	2	3	21:14	7	23
12	Arsenal Tula	12	3	4	5	12:22	-10	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Sochi
Russian FNL
19.07.26	Sochi - Spartak Kostroma	0:2 ✺
12.07.26	Shinnik - Sochi	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Sochi - Torpedo Moscow	0:3 ✺
30.06.26	Sochi - SKA Khabarovsk	4:2 ✺
26.06.26	Sochi - Arsenal Tula	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLWT
- Arsenal Tula
Russian FNL
19.07.26	Arsenal Tula - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	0:1 ✺
13.07.26	Arsenal Tula - Tekstilshchik Ivanovo	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
26.06.26	Sochi - Arsenal Tula	3:3 ✺
21.06.26	Arsenal Tula - Spartak Kostroma	1:1 ✺
17.06.26	Arsenal Tula - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
26.06.26	Sochi - Arsenal Tula	3:3
Russian FNL
03.05.25	Sochi - Arsenal Tula	5:1
13.10.24	Arsenal Tula - Sochi	1:1
Russian Premier League
26.02.22	Sochi - Arsenal Tula	2:0
31.10.21	Arsenal Tula - Sochi	1:2
27.02.21	Sochi - Arsenal Tula	4:0
20.09.20	Arsenal Tula - Sochi	3:2

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