Match Info

FNL - Round 32

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Centralnyy (Novorossiysk)

Referee: Silantyev K. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match TV


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Baltika Kaliningrad

	1	X	2
	2.56	3.05	3.1
	2.47	3.01	3.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.45)	3.03 ↑ (3.02)	3.06 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
37.7%

Draw
31.3%

Baltika Kaliningrad
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

31.2%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

31%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Baltika Kaliningrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baltika Kaliningrad than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Baltika Kaliningrad Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Chernomorets will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Baltika will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Baltika (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Soldatenko R. (G) 4. Milic S. 5. Stezhko V. 44. Chichinadze A. 6. Tarba Z. 64. Lanin O. 21. Ivanov E. 27. Gurchenko D. 13. Akbashev R. 9. Guzina G. 10. Uridia M.	67. Borisko M. (G) 2. Varatynov S. 4. Gassama N. 16. Andrade K. 17. Saus V. 5. Osipov A. 8. Mendel A. 96. Mokhammad A. 19. Pryakhin S. 22. Titkov N. 91. Gil Hurtado B.
Substitutes
7. Antonov A. 35. Enin I. 17. Fomin D. 1. Frolkin D. (G) 22. Gorelov P. 77. Khabalov A. 57. Krotov V. 3. Musalov M. 23. Nikiforov N. 69. Rodionov I. 8. Yusupov Z. 28. Zhilkin G.	14. Appaev K. 23. Chernov E. 70. Eldarushev A. 6. Isaenko O. 11. Kovalev Y. 81. Kukushkin I. (G) 99. Lisakovich V. 44. Lyubakov E. (G) 27. Ozdoev R. 73. Petrov M. 9. Stefanovich I. 13. Terentjev D.
Coaches
Vasilenko O.	Talalaev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Pryakhin S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pryakhin S. ↓, Petrov M. ↑,
56', Ivanov E. 🟨,
59', Milic S. 🟨,
60', Mendel A. 🟨,
76', Gurchenko D. ↓, Musalov M. ↑,
77', Titkov N. ↓, Chernov E. ↑,
81', Gil Hurtado B. ↓, Eldarushev A. ↑,
84', Lanin O. 🟨,
86', Ivanov E. ↓, Yusupov Z. ↑,
87', Tarba Z. ↓, Gorelov P. ↑,
90+2', Musalov M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Baltika is Qualified for Premier League

Chernomorets is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Baltika is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Chernomorets won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.48%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
03.05.25	Shinnik - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:2 ✺
27.04.25	Sokol Saratov - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:2 ✺
19.04.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - SKA Khabarovsk	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rotor	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWTW
- Baltika Kaliningrad
Russian FNL
03.05.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Torpedo Moscow	0:1 ✺
26.04.25	Ural - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:5 ✺
20.04.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Sokol Saratov	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Sochi	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
02.08.24	Baltika Kaliningrad - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:0

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