Match Info

FNL - Round 28

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Centralnyy (Novorossiysk)

Referee: Fedotov S. (Rus)


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Spartak Kostroma

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.05	2.43
	3.15	3.06	2.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (3.2)	3.06 ↓ (3.28)	2.39 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
29.4%

Draw
31%

Spartak Kostroma
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

29%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

28.4%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Spartak Kostroma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spartak Kostroma than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Spartak Kostroma Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
73. Shtepa M. (G) 18. Nikolaev O. 17. Zhilkin G. 3. Pliev Z. 91. Suslov K. 99. Morozov K. 77. Zarypbekov E. 7. Antonov A. 10. Zhigulev I. 11. Konovalov I. 98. Khubulov A.	25. Sappa D. (G) 2. Tarasov N. 4. Supranovich N. 18. Ignatiev M. 5. Zhilmostnykh D. 9. Khubaev D. 10. Pantelic D. 35. Enin I. 77. Meshcheryakov I. 88. Gogic F. 8. Sadov D.
Substitutes
15. Alikberov T. 21. Chistyakov N. 29. Gordiyuk T. 33. Khalilov M. 5. Krachkovskii A. 44. Kukharchuk I. 88. Magomedov Z. 23. Matyusha M. (G) 19. Pomeshkin K. 14. Sidorenko D. 90. Sutugin I. 81. Tonevitskiy E.	7. Bokov D. 3. Bugriev S. 23. Chikanchi M. 38. Chupayov A. 69. Chursin K. 68. Gaydash M. (G) 78. Kiselev G. 19. Lyakh V. 11. Nazarenko E. 13. Rubtsov I. 57. Tlekhugov M. 17. Uridia G.
Coaches
Popov D.	Ashikhmin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Khubulov A. ⚽,
11', Khubaev D. 🟨,
20', Khubulov A. 🟨,
24', Zhigulev I. 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Tarasov N. ⚽,
41', Tarasov N. 🟨,
45+3', Zhilmostnykh D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Zhilmostnykh D. 🟨,
56', Sadov D. ↓, Lyakh V. ↑,
60', Suslov K. 🟨,
65', Enin I. ↓, Rubtsov I. ↑,
68', Antonov A. ↓, Krachkovskii A. ↑,
69', Meshcheryakov I. ↓, Bokov D. ↑,
72', Pliev Z. 🟨,
73', Lyakh V. 🟨,
74', 1 - 2, Pantelic D. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Suslov K. ↓, Tonevitskiy E. ↑,
75', Morozov K. ↓, Sutugin I. ↑,
78', Sappa D. 🟨,
79', Konovalov I. ↓, Chistyakov N. ↑,
79', Zhilkin G. ↓, Pomeshkin K. ↑,
82', Pantelic D. ↓, Bugriev S. ↑,
85', Supranovich N. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 5).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Chernomorets may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Spartak Kostroma could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Chernomorets won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

S. Kostroma: 6.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	S. Kostroma	12	7	3	2	16:10	6	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
03.04.26	Chelyabinsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1 ✺
29.03.26	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rotor	1:4 ✺
21.03.26	KAMAZ - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Fakel - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - SKA Khabarovsk	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TLLTW
- Spartak Kostroma
Russian FNL
04.04.26	Spartak Kostroma - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	Volga Ulyanovsk - Spartak Kostroma	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Spartak Kostroma - Shinnik	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Spartak Kostroma - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Chelyabinsk - Spartak Kostroma	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
02.11.25	Spartak Kostroma - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	3:1

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