Match Info

FNL - Round 26

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Centralnyy (Novorossiysk)

Referee: Cheremnykh M. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Russia	MATCH! Planeta, Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Rotor

	1	X	2
	3.13	2.98	2.58
	3.11	3.01	2.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↓ (3.61)	3 ↑ (2.73)	2.56 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
30.7%

Draw
32%

Rotor
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

35%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

35.4%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Rotor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rotor than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rotor Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Chernomorets will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Chernomorets (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chernomorets (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
73. Shtepa M. (G) 18. Nikolaev O. 17. Zhilkin G. 91. Suslov K. 3. Pliev Z. (C) 10. Zhigulev I. 11. Konovalov I. 8. Tarba Z. 99. Morozov K. 44. Kukharchuk I. 98. Khubulov A.	13. Chagrov N. (G) 80. Bardybakhin V. 97. Pokidyshev N. 11. Kleshchenko A. 17. Shilnikov G. 5. Troshechkin A. 6. Makarov S. (C) 33. Arbuzov Y. 7. Safronov I. 18. Kaynov M. 77. Eldarushev A.
Substitutes
7. Antonov A. 9. Antsiperov D. 21. Chistyakov N. 29. Gordiyuk T. 33. Khalilov M. 88. Magomedov Z. 23. Matyusha M. (G) 19. Pomeshkin K. 14. Sidorenko D. 90. Sutugin I. 59. Syshchenko M. 81. Tonevitskiy E.	22. Aliev S. 73. Aznaurov I. 44. Dadic T. 15. Danilkin E. 9. Davidyan D. 34. Khramtsov M. 2. Korotkov A. 8. Makarov A. 69. Rodionov I. 10. Simonyan A. 50. Sugrobov V. (G) 16. Umirov B. (G)
Coaches
Popov D.	Parfenov D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Arbuzov Y. ↓, Rodionov I. ↑,
31', Pliev Z. 🟨,
35', Konovalov I. 🟨,
40', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Kukharchuk I. ↓, Antonov A. ↑,
57', 0 - 1, Eldarushev A. ⚽,
62', Suslov K. ↓, Pomeshkin K. ↑,
66', 0 - 2, Eldarushev A. ⚽,
67', Safronov I. ↓, Simonyan A. ↑,
68', Eldarushev A. ↓, Aliev S. ↑,
69', Nikolaev O. ↓, Chistyakov N. ↑,
70', Konovalov I. ↓, Magomedov Z. ↑,
77', 1 - 2, Zhilkin G. ⚽,
77', 1 - 3, Aliev S. ⚽,
79', Zhigulev I. ↓, Sutugin I. ↑,
85', Morozov K. 🟨,
85', Kaynov M. ↓, Dadic T. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 4, Aliev S. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 1.

Chernomorets is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rotor's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chernomorets won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.6:1).

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

R. Volgograd: 1.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	R. Volgograd	12	5	2	5	20:14	6	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
21.03.26	KAMAZ - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Fakel - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - SKA Khabarovsk	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Torpedo Moscow	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
04.02.26	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban Krasnodar	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LTWLL
- Rotor Volgograd
Russian FNL
20.03.26	Rotor - Fakel	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	KAMAZ - Rotor	1:1 ✺
09.03.26	Rotor - Ural	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Spartak Kostroma - Rotor	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.02.26	Rotor - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
12.10.25	Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:0
13.04.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rotor	1:1
20.09.24	Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:2
Russian FNL 2 Group 1
21.05.23	Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:1
25.03.23	Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:0
18.09.22	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rotor	0:0
Club Friendly
05.02.18	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rotor	1:2

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