Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Round 9

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday


	Cimarrones de Sonora		Leones Negros 2

	1	X	2
	1.59	3.75	5
	1.63	3.60	5.23	Watch
	1.59	3.74	4.96	Watch
	1.6	3.7	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (2.12)	3.7 ↑ (3.25)	4.99 ↑ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cimarrones de Sonora
57%

Draw
24.7%

Leones Negros 2
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

28.4%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

29.6%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cimarrones de Sonora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cimarrones de Sonora's performance.

Leones Negros 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leones Negros 2 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cimarrones de Sonora than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cimarrones de Sonora that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros 2 than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leones Negros 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Cimarrones de Sonora - Leones Negros 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Premier Serie A (Play Offs: ) and 6)

Cimarrones de Sonora has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leones Negros 2 is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Cimarrones de Sonora is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cimarrones de Sonora won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Cimarrones de Sonora won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cimarrones de Sonora
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
11.10.25	Los Cabos United - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Tigres de Álica	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	Tritones Vallarta - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:3 ✺
19.09.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Tecos FC	1:2 ✺
05.09.25	Cimarrones de Sonora - Mineros de Fresnillo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWLW
- Leones Negros 2
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
11.10.25	Leones Negros 2 - Ensenada	3:0 ✺
05.10.25	Zapotlanejo - Leones Negros 2	2:3 ✺
27.09.25	Leones Negros 2 - Alacranes de Durango	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	La Piedad - Leones Negros 2	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Leones Negros 2 - Colima	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
01.03.25	Leones Negros 2 - Cimarrones de Sonora	3:1
19.10.24	Cimarrones de Sonora - Leones Negros 2	1:0

Cimarrones de Sonora - Leones Negros 2: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide