Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 10 - Round 11

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday


	Ciudad de Lucena		Atlético Onubense

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.35	5.15
	1.59	3.5	5.86
	1.63	3.34	5.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.6)	3.4 ↑ (3.4)	5.44 ↓ (5.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ciudad de Lucena
56.4%

Draw
26.8%

Atlético Onubense
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

26.8%

16.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

25.8%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ciudad de Lucena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Atlético Onubense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ciudad de Lucena than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Onubense than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Ciudad de Lucena - Atlético Onubense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
87', 1 - 0, Ortiz M. ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 0, García Á. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 10 (Play Offs: ) and 9).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Onubense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ciudad de Lucena is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ciudad de Lucena won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ciudad de Lucena won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Ciudad de Lucena
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
09.11.25	Pozoblanco - Ciudad de Lucena	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Ciudad de Lucena - San Roque de Lepe	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Ciudad de Lucena - Villarreal	0:6 ✺
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
26.10.25	Castilleja - Ciudad de Lucena	0:2 ✺
19.10.25	Ciudad de Lucena - Coria CF	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TTLWW
- Atlético Onubense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
08.11.25	Atlético Onubense - Bollullos	1:3 ✺
02.11.25	Sevilla C - Atlético Onubense	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Atlético Onubense - Linense	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Tomares - Atlético Onubense	3:1 ✺
12.10.25	Pozoblanco - Atlético Onubense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
23.02.25	Atlético Onubense - Ciudad de Lucena	1:0
13.10.24	Ciudad de Lucena - Atlético Onubense	1:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
21.01.18	Atlético Onubense - Ciudad de Lucena	2:3
10.09.17	Ciudad de Lucena - Atlético Onubense	3:2

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