Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 25

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Solitude (Belfast)

Referee: Gregg S. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	Onefootball


	Cliftonville		Carrick Rangers

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.5	3.9
	1.78	3.71	3.91	Watch
	1.8	3.5	3.9
	1.81	3.48	3.85
	1.85	3.6	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.55)	3.56 ↓ (3.96)	3.84 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cliftonville
50.5%

Draw
25.7%

Carrick Rangers
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

23.2%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

22.6%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cliftonville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cliftonville's form might have worsened.

Carrick Rangers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carrick Rangers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cliftonville than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cliftonville, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carrick Rangers than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carrick Rangers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Cliftonville - Carrick Rangers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Morrison P. (G) 9. Curran R. 42. Fapetu A. 36. Hawthorne K. 29. Healy B. 12. Leppard S. 45. McGarry S. 27. McStravick L. 2. Pepper C. 41. Sheridan J. 6. Wilson H.	13. Pengelly S. (G) 15. Buchanan-Rolleston B. 6. Callacher J. 19. Crowe J. 9. Gibson D. 22. Heatley P. 12. McCullough L. 25. McKay R. 34. Olosunde M. 2. Place M. 24. Snoddy M.
Substitutes
19. Gormley J. 15. Jordan R. 18. McCay C. 32. McWoods E. 1. Ridd L. (G) 23. Robertson S. . Toole J.	18. Boyd J. 4. Burns B. 33. Donnelly L. (G) 10. Lecky A. 29. McCawl E. 11. Moore J. 14. Steele A.
Coaches
Magilton J.	Baxter S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
10', 1 - 0, Healy B. ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Gibson D. ⚽,
44', 1 - 2, Heatley P. ⚽, Gibson D. (A),
45+2', 1 - 3, Gibson D. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', McKay R. ↓, Steele A. ↑,
53', 1 - 4, Gibson D. ⚽,
60', Healy B. 🟨,
75', Olosunde M. ↓, Lecky A. ↑,
86', Wilson H. 🟨,
87', Heatley P. ↓, Moore J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cliftonville won 5.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Cliftonville may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Carrick Rangers has had a series of home games.

In this match, Cliftonville is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cliftonville won 18 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 50:12. (average 2.5:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Cliftonville won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 32:3. (average 3.2:0.3).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Carrick Rangers: 0.84% Cliftonville: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Carrick Rangers	10	4	1	5	15:15	0	13
9	Cliftonville	10	4	0	6	12:12	0	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cliftonville FC
Northern Irish Premiership
13.01.26	Ballymena United - Cliftonville	2:2 ✺
30.12.25	Larne - Cliftonville	0:0 ✺
26.12.25	Cliftonville - Crusaders	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Bangor - Cliftonville	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Cliftonville - Glenavon	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TTLTW
- Carrick Rangers
Northern Irish Premiership
13.01.26	Carrick Rangers - Linfield	0:0 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
10.01.26	Carrick Rangers - Queens University Belfast	5:1 ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
03.01.26	Carrick Rangers - Glentoran	0:7 ✺
30.12.25	Crusaders - Carrick Rangers	2:2 ✺
26.12.25	Carrick Rangers - Larne	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
25.10.25	Carrick Rangers - Cliftonville	0:1
06.09.25	Carrick Rangers - Cliftonville	1:2
01.04.25	Carrick Rangers - Cliftonville	1:3
22.03.25	Cliftonville - Carrick Rangers	3:0
12.02.25	Cliftonville - Carrick Rangers	3:0
05.10.24	Carrick Rangers - Cliftonville	2:0
26.01.24	Carrick Rangers - Cliftonville	0:1

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