Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Loughview Leisure Arena (Carrickfergus)

Referee: McKenna M. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Nifl TV


	Carrick Rangers		Crusaders

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.10	4.60
	1.55	4.05	4.6
	1.64	4.67	4.59
	1.57	4.43	4.43	Watch
	1.57	4.55	4.5
	1.61	4.62	4.76
	1.56	4.1	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.55)	4.36 ↓ (4.52)	4.58 ↑ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carrick Rangers
58.6%

Draw
21.2%

Crusaders
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carrick Rangers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Crusaders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carrick Rangers than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crusaders than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Carrick Rangers - Crusaders Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gartside N. (G) 15. Buchanan-Rolleston B. 6. Callacher J. 19. Crowe J. (C) 5. Forsythe J. 9. Gibson D. 22. Heatley P. 10. Lecky A. 3. Nelson K. 24. Snoddy M. 14. Steele A.	1. Callister S. (G) 42. Anderson L. 11. Dunlop E. 2. Forsythe K. 3. Kelly G. 22. McKay R. 18. Reid A. 14. Rocks D. 5. Rough S. 15. Wardell O. 6. Weir R.
Substitutes
25. Agnew D. (G) 8. Clucas S. 23. Hastings J. 30. Hawthorne C. 11. Maciulaitis N. 17. Moore J. 7. O'Conchubhair D.	43. Barr L. 4. Blaney J. 17. Bond K. 12. Doherty J. 8. Jewitt-White H. 27. Maguire T. 16. Williamson J.
Coaches
Baxter S.	Caddell D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Lecky A. ⚽,
37', 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
55', 2 - 0, Forsythe J. ⚽,
64', 3 - 0, Gibson D. ⚽,
64', 🟨,
81', 4 - 0, O'Conchubhair D. ⚽,
89', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 8th in the NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 4th in the Promotion - NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carrick Rangers won 2.

Carrick Rangers is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Crusaders have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Carrick Rangers for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Carrick Rangers has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:43 (averaging 1.4:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Carrick Rangers against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 16:16 goals (averaging 1.6:1.6 per game).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Carrick Rangers: 0.84% Crusaders: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Crusaders	10	5	0	5	15:18	-3	15
6	Carrick Rangers	10	4	1	5	15:15	0	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carrick Rangers
Northern Irish Premiership
26.09.26	Glentoran - Carrick Rangers	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Carrick Rangers - Larne	2:5 ✺
15.09.26	Ballymena United - Carrick Rangers	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Carrick Rangers - Cliftonville	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Linfield - Carrick Rangers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLL
- Crusaders FC
Northern Irish Premiership
26.09.26	Crusaders - Bangor	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Linfield - Crusaders	1:0 ✺
15.09.26	Crusaders - Dungannon Swifts	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Crusaders - Limavady United	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Coleraine - Crusaders	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
28.03.26	Carrick Rangers - Crusaders	6:1
30.12.25	Crusaders - Carrick Rangers	2:2
08.11.25	Carrick Rangers - Crusaders	1:2
09.08.25	Crusaders - Carrick Rangers	3:4
30.12.24	Carrick Rangers - Crusaders	0:0
16.11.24	Carrick Rangers - Crusaders	3:0
31.08.24	Crusaders - Carrick Rangers	2:1

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